IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i17p6168-d1224668.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Machine Learning Application for the Energy Flexibility Assessment of a Distribution Network for Consumers

Author

Listed:
  • Jaka Rober

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Maribor, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia)

  • Leon Maruša

    (Elektro Celje d.d, Vrunčeva ulica 2a, 3000 Celje, Slovenia)

  • Miloš Beković

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Maribor, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia)

Abstract

This paper presents a step-by-step approach to assess the energy flexibility potential of residential consumers to manage congestion in the distribution network. A case study is presented where a selected transformer station exhibits signs of overloading. An analysis has been performed to evaluate the magnitude of the overloading and the timing of the overload occurrence based on their historical load data. Based on the historical load data, the four most prominent consumers have been chosen for the flexibility assessment. Temperature load dependency has been evaluated for the selected consumers. The paper’s novel approach focuses on selecting individual consumers with the highest energy flexibility potential, and analysing their load patterns to address transformer overloading. To achieve this, machine learning algorithms, specifically, multiple linear regression and support vector machines, were used for load profile forecasting during the overload occurrences. Based on the forecast and measured load patterns, flexibility scenarios were created for each consumer. The generated models were evaluated and compared with the forecasting based on the average load of the past days. In the results, three potential consumers were identified who could resolve the transformer overloading problem. The machine learning models outperformed the average-based forecasting method, providing more realistic estimates of flexibility potential. The proposed approach can be applied to other overloaded transformer stations, but with a limited number of consumers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaka Rober & Leon Maruša & Miloš Beković, 2023. "A Machine Learning Application for the Energy Flexibility Assessment of a Distribution Network for Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-20, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:17:p:6168-:d:1224668
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/17/6168/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/17/6168/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuqi Dong & Xuejiao Ma & Chenchen Ma & Jianzhou Wang, 2016. "Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Afzalan, Milad & Jazizadeh, Farrokh, 2019. "Residential loads flexibility potential for demand response using energy consumption patterns and user segments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    3. Cátia Silva & Pedro Faria & Zita Vale, 2023. "Demand Response Implementation: Overview of Europe and United States Status," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Sebastian Pater, 2023. "Increasing Energy Self-Consumption in Residential Photovoltaic Systems with Heat Pumps in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-14, May.
    5. Ottavia Valentini & Nikoleta Andreadou & Paolo Bertoldi & Alexandre Lucas & Iolanda Saviuc & Evangelos Kotsakis, 2022. "Demand Response Impact Evaluation: A Review of Methods for Estimating the Customer Baseline Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-36, July.
    6. Klyapovskiy, Sergey & You, Shi & Michiorri, Andrea & Kariniotakis, George & Bindner, Henrik W., 2019. "Incorporating flexibility options into distribution grid reinforcement planning: A techno-economic framework approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    7. Sridhar, Araavind & Honkapuro, Samuli & Ruiz, Fredy & Stoklasa, Jan & Annala, Salla & Wolff, Annika & Rautiainen, Antti, 2023. "Toward residential flexibility—Consumer willingness to enroll household loads in demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuang, Biao & Shi, Yangming & Hu, Yuqing & Zeng, Zhaoyun & Chen, Jianli, 2024. "Household energy resilience in extreme weather events: An investigation of energy service importance, HVAC usage behaviors, and willingness to pay," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    2. Olga Bogdanova & Karīna Viskuba & Laila Zemīte, 2023. "A Review of Barriers and Enables in Demand Response Performance Chain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-33, September.
    3. Liu, Hong & Zhao, Yue & Gu, Chenghong & Ge, Shaoyun & Yang, Zan, 2021. "Adjustable capability of the distributed energy system: Definition, framework, and evaluation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Zhao, Pengxiang & Dong, Zhao Yang & Meng, Ke & Kong, Weicong & Yang, Jiajia, 2021. "Household power usage pattern filtering-based residential electricity plan recommender system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    5. Zheng, Ling & Zhou, Bin & Cao, Yijia & Wing Or, Siu & Li, Yong & Wing Chan, Ka, 2022. "Hierarchical distributed multi-energy demand response for coordinated operation of building clusters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    6. Davarzani, Sima & Pisica, Ioana & Taylor, Gareth A. & Munisami, Kevin J., 2021. "Residential Demand Response Strategies and Applications in Active Distribution Network Management," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Poonpong Suksawang & Sukonthip Suphachan & Kanokkarn Kaewnuch, 2018. "Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Thailand using Hybrid Model SARIMA and Gaussian Process with Combine Kernel Function Technique," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 98-109.
    8. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.
    9. Marcel Antal & Vlad Mihailescu & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel, 2022. "Blockchain-Based Distributed Federated Learning in Smart Grid," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-19, November.
    10. Lind, Leandro & Chaves-Ávila, José Pablo & Valarezo, Orlando & Sanjab, Anibal & Olmos, Luis, 2024. "Baseline methods for distributed flexibility in power systems considering resource, market, and product characteristics," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Yujia Ge & Yurong Nan & Lijun Bai, 2019. "A Hybrid Prediction Model for Solar Radiation Based on Long Short-Term Memory, Empirical Mode Decomposition, and Solar Profiles for Energy Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Chen, Xiao & Zanocco, Chad & Flora, June & Rajagopal, Ram, 2022. "Constructing dynamic residential energy lifestyles using Latent Dirichlet Allocation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    13. Liu, Yinyan & Ma, Jin & Xing, Xinjie & Liu, Xinglu & Wang, Wei, 2022. "A home energy management system incorporating data-driven uncertainty-aware user preference," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    14. Eunjung Lee & Keon Baek & Jinho Kim, 2020. "Evaluation of Demand Response Potential Flexibility in the Industry Based on a Data-Driven Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Ku, Arthur Lin & Qiu, Yueming (Lucy) & Lou, Jiehong & Nock, Destenie & Xing, Bo, 2022. "Changes in hourly electricity consumption under COVID mandates: A glance to future hourly residential power consumption pattern with remote work in Arizona," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    16. Zulfiqar, M. & Kamran, M. & Rasheed, M.B. & Alquthami, T. & Milyani, A.H., 2023. "A hybrid framework for short term load forecasting with a navel feature engineering and adaptive grasshopper optimization in smart grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    17. Mansour Selseleh Jonban & Luis Romeral & Elyas Rakhshani & Mousa Marzband, 2023. "Flexible Smart Energy-Management Systems Using an Online Tendering Process Framework for Microgrids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-19, June.
    18. Milad Afzalan & Farrokh Jazizadeh, 2021. "Quantification of Demand-Supply Balancing Capacity among Prosumers and Consumers: Community Self-Sufficiency Assessment for Energy Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    19. Bruno Mota & Luis Gomes & Pedro Faria & Carlos Ramos & Zita Vale & Regina Correia, 2021. "Production Line Optimization to Minimize Energy Cost and Participate in Demand Response Events," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, January.
    20. Wu, Chunying & Wang, Jianzhou & Chen, Xuejun & Du, Pei & Yang, Wendong, 2020. "A novel hybrid system based on multi-objective optimization for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 149-165.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:17:p:6168-:d:1224668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.