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Stacked LSTM Sequence-to-Sequence Autoencoder with Feature Selection for Daily Solar Radiation Prediction: A Review and New Modeling Results

Author

Listed:
  • Sujan Ghimire

    (School of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield, QLD 4300, Australia)

  • Ravinesh C. Deo

    (School of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield, QLD 4300, Australia)

  • Hua Wang

    (Institute of Sustainable Industries and Liveable Cities, Victoria University, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia)

  • Mohanad S. Al-Musaylh

    (Management Technical College, Southern Technical University, Basrah 61001, Iraq)

  • David Casillas-Pérez

    (Department of Signal Processing and Communications, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28942 Fuenlabrada, Spain)

  • Sancho Salcedo-Sanz

    (Department of Signal Processing and Communications, Universidad de Alcalá, 28805 Alcalá de Henares, Spain)

Abstract

We review the latest modeling techniques and propose new hybrid SAELSTM framework based on Deep Learning (DL) to construct prediction intervals for daily Global Solar Radiation (GSR) using the Manta Ray Foraging Optimization (MRFO) feature selection to select model parameters. Features are employed as potential inputs for Long Short-Term Memory and a seq2seq SAELSTM autoencoder Deep Learning (DL) system in the final GSR prediction. Six solar energy farms in Queensland, Australia are considered to evaluate the method with predictors from Global Climate Models and ground-based observation. Comparisons are carried out among DL models (i.e., Deep Neural Network) and conventional Machine Learning algorithms (i.e., Gradient Boosting Regression, Random Forest Regression, Extremely Randomized Trees, and Adaptive Boosting Regression). The hyperparameters are deduced with grid search, and simulations demonstrate that the DL hybrid SAELSTM model is accurate compared with the other models as well as the persistence methods. The SAELSTM model obtains quality solar energy prediction intervals with high coverage probability and low interval errors. The review and new modelling results utilising an autoencoder deep learning method show that our approach is acceptable to predict solar radiation, and therefore is useful in solar energy monitoring systems to capture the stochastic variations in solar power generation due to cloud cover, aerosols, ozone changes, and other atmospheric attenuation factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Sujan Ghimire & Ravinesh C. Deo & Hua Wang & Mohanad S. Al-Musaylh & David Casillas-Pérez & Sancho Salcedo-Sanz, 2022. "Stacked LSTM Sequence-to-Sequence Autoencoder with Feature Selection for Daily Solar Radiation Prediction: A Review and New Modeling Results," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-39, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:3:p:1061-:d:739536
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Jian Qi & Du, Yu & Wang, Jing, 2020. "LSTM based long-term energy consumption prediction with periodicity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2022. "Boosting solar radiation predictions with global climate models, observational predictors and hybrid deep-machine learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    2. Sibtain, Muhammad & Li, Xianshan & Saleem, Snoober & Ain, Qurat-ul- & Shi, Qiang & Li, Fei & Saeed, Muhammad & Majeed, Fatima & Shah, Syed Shoaib Ahmed & Saeed, Muhammad Hammad, 2022. "Multifaceted irradiance prediction by exploiting hybrid decomposition-entropy-Spatiotemporal attention based Sequence2Sequence models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 648-682.
    3. Ghadah Alkhayat & Syed Hamid Hasan & Rashid Mehmood, 2022. "SENERGY: A Novel Deep Learning-Based Auto-Selective Approach and Tool for Solar Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-55, September.
    4. Ghimire, Sujan & Nguyen-Huy, Thong & AL-Musaylh, Mohanad S. & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2023. "A novel approach based on integration of convolutional neural networks and echo state network for daily electricity demand prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).

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