IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i24p9546-d1005310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Nicoletta Matera

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy)

  • Domenico Mazzeo

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy
    Department of Mechanical, Energy and Management Engineering (DIMEG), University of Calabria, P. Bucci Cube 46/C, 87036 Arcavacata of Rende, Italy)

  • Cristina Baglivo

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy)

  • Paolo Maria Congedo

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy)

Abstract

This work aims to assess the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) electricity in two Italian cities, with different latitudes and Köppen–Geiger climate classifications. This was undertaken using the recent EURO-CORDEX set of high-resolution climate projections and PV power generation models, implemented on TRNSYS software. Data for two variables (surface air temperature and solar radiation) were analysed over a long period from 1971 to 2100. For future periods, two of the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report were considered. In both RCP scenarios and both locations, it is estimated that the yearly PV energy produced in the future period will not undergo significant variations on average given that the rate of decrease is foreseen almost constant; instead, a slight reduction in the PV energy was detected in the past period. It can be concluded that the PV market in Italy will grow in the next years considering that the reduction in the foreseen PV purchase costs will be also supported by the slight positive effect of climate change on PV manufacturability.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletta Matera & Domenico Mazzeo & Cristina Baglivo & Paolo Maria Congedo, 2022. "Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:24:p:9546-:d:1005310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/24/9546/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/24/9546/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayikoe Tettey, Uniben Yao & Gustavsson, Leif, 2020. "Energy savings and overheating risk of deep energy renovation of a multi-storey residential building in a cold climate under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    2. Mazzeo, Domenico, 2019. "Nocturnal electric vehicle charging interacting with a residential photovoltaic-battery system: a 3E (energy, economic and environmental) analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 310-331.
    3. Mazzeo, Domenico & Matera, Nicoletta & De Luca, Pierangelo & Baglivo, Cristina & Maria Congedo, Paolo & Oliveti, Giuseppe, 2020. "Worldwide geographical mapping and optimization of stand-alone and grid-connected hybrid renewable system techno-economic performance across Köppen-Geiger climates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Tianhao & Tian, Jun & Zhu, Hongyu & Goh, Hui Hwang & Liu, Hui & Wu, Thomas & Zhang, Dongdong, 2023. "Key technologies and developments of multi-energy system: Three-layer framework, modelling and optimisation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicoletta Matera & Domenico Mazzeo & Cristina Baglivo & Paolo Maria Congedo, 2023. "Energy Independence of a Small Office Community Powered by Photovoltaic-Wind Hybrid Systems in Widely Different Climates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Mazzeo, Domenico & Herdem, Münür Sacit & Matera, Nicoletta & Bonini, Matteo & Wen, John Z. & Nathwani, Jatin & Oliveti, Giuseppe, 2021. "Artificial intelligence application for the performance prediction of a clean energy community," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Silva, Ana R. & Pousinho, H.M.I. & Estanqueiro, Ana, 2022. "A multistage stochastic approach for the optimal bidding of variable renewable energy in the day-ahead, intraday and balancing markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    4. D’Adamo, Idiano & Falcone, Pasquale Marcello & Gastaldi, Massimo & Morone, Piergiuseppe, 2020. "The economic viability of photovoltaic systems in public buildings: Evidence from Italy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. D'Adamo, Idiano & Gastaldi, Massimo & Morone, Piergiuseppe & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "Economics and policy implications of residential photovoltaic systems in Italy's developed market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Olabi, A.G. & Wilberforce, Tabbi & Abdelkareem, Mohammad Ali, 2021. "Fuel cell application in the automotive industry and future perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Paolo Maria Congedo & Cristina Baglivo & Simone Panico & Domenico Mazzeo & Nicoletta Matera, 2022. "Optimization of Micro-CAES and TES Systems for Trigeneration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Houssem Rafik Al-Hana Bouchekara & Mohammad Shoaib Shahriar & Muhammad Sharjeel Javaid & Yusuf Abubakar Sha’aban & Makbul Anwari Muhammad Ramli, 2021. "Multi-Objective Optimization of a Hybrid Nanogrid/Microgrid: Application to Desert Camps in Hafr Al-Batin," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, February.
    9. Nord, Natasa & Shakerin, Mohammad & Tereshchenko, Tymofii & Verda, Vittorio & Borchiellini, Romano, 2021. "Data informed physical models for district heating grids with distributed heat sources to understand thermal and hydraulic aspects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Gabriel Nasser Doyle de Doile & Paulo Rotella Junior & Luiz Célio Souza Rocha & Ivan Bolis & Karel Janda & Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior, 2021. "Hybrid Wind and Solar Photovoltaic Generation with Energy Storage Systems: A Systematic Literature Review and Contributions to Technical and Economic Regulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    11. de Souza Dutra, Michael David & da Conceição Júnior, Gerson & de Paula Ferreira, William & Campos Chaves, Matheus Roberto, 2020. "A customized transition towards smart homes: A fast framework for economic analyses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    12. Cristina Baglivo, 2021. "Dynamic Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Renovation of a School in a Mediterranean Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Tariq, Rasikh & Sheikh, Nadeem Ahmed & Livas-García, A. & Xamán, J. & Bassam, A. & Maisotsenko, Valeriy, 2021. "Projecting global water footprints diminution of a dew-point cooling system: Sustainability approach assisted with energetic and economic assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Zhang, Yijie & Ma, Tao & Yang, Hongxing, 2022. "Grid-connected photovoltaic battery systems: A comprehensive review and perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    15. Eslami, M. & Nahani, P., 2021. "How policies affect the cost-effectiveness of residential renewable energy in Iran: A techno-economic analysis for optimization," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Elkadeem, M.R. & Younes, Ali & Sharshir, Swellam W. & Campana, Pietro Elia & Wang, Shaorong, 2021. "Sustainable siting and design optimization of hybrid renewable energy system: A geospatial multi-criteria analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    17. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong, 2021. "Renewable energy integration/techno-economic feasibility analysis, cost/benefit impact on islanded and grid-connected operations: A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 83-108.
    18. Corneliu Marinescu, 2022. "Progress in the Development and Implementation of Residential EV Charging Stations Based on Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, December.
    19. Klimenko, V.V. & Krasheninnikov, S.M. & Fedotova, E.V., 2022. "CHP performance under the warming climate: a case study for Russia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    20. Guzović, Zvonimir & Duic, Neven & Piacentino, Antonio & Markovska, Natasa & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik, 2022. "Recent advances in methods, policies and technologies at sustainable energy systems development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:24:p:9546-:d:1005310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.