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Deep RNN-Based Photovoltaic Power Short-Term Forecast Using Power IoT Sensors

Author

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  • Hyung Keun Ahn

    (The Department of Electrical & Electronics Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea)

  • Neungsoo Park

    (The Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea)

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power fluctuations caused by weather changes can lead to short-term mismatches in power demand and supply. Therefore, to operate the power grid efficiently and reliably, short-term PV power forecasts are required against these fluctuations. In this paper, we propose a deep RNN-based PV power short-term forecast. To reflect the impact of weather changes, the proposed model utilizes the on-site weather IoT dataset and power data, collected in real-time. We investigated various parameters of the proposed deep RNN-based forecast model and the combination of weather parameters to find an accurate prediction model. Experimental results showed that accuracies of 5 and 15 min ahead PV power generation forecast, using 3 RNN layers with 12 time-step, were 98.0% and 96.6% based on the normalized RMSE, respectively. Their R 2 -scores were 0.988 and 0.949. In experiments for 1 and 3 h ahead of PV power generation forecasts, their accuracies were 94.8% and 92.9%, respectively. Also, their R 2 -scores were 0.963 and 0.927. These experimental results showed that the proposed deep RNN-based short-term forecast algorithm achieved higher prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyung Keun Ahn & Neungsoo Park, 2021. "Deep RNN-Based Photovoltaic Power Short-Term Forecast Using Power IoT Sensors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:2:p:436-:d:480658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Isaac Gallardo & Daniel Amor & Álvaro Gutiérrez, 2023. "Recent Trends in Real-Time Photovoltaic Prediction Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.
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    6. Cai Tao & Junjie Lu & Jianxun Lang & Xiaosheng Peng & Kai Cheng & Shanxu Duan, 2021. "Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Feature Selection and Bias Compensation–LSTM Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.
    7. Seong-Hyeon Ahn & Jin-Hee Hyun & Jin-Ho Choi & Seong-Geun Lee & Gyu-Gwang Kim & Byeong-Gwan Bhang & Hae-Lim Cha & Byeong-Yong Lim & Hoon-Joo Choi & Hyung-Keun Ahn, 2023. "Load-Following Operation of Small Modular Reactors under Unit Commitment Planning with Various Photovoltaic System Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Cristian Napole & Oscar Barambones & Mohamed Derbeli & Isidro Calvo & Mohammed Yousri Silaa & Javier Velasco, 2021. "High-Performance Tracking for Piezoelectric Actuators Using Super-Twisting Algorithm Based on Artificial Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-20, January.

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