IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2019i1p83-d301186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of Early Stopping through Statistical Health Prognostic Models for Empirical RUL Estimation in Wind Turbine Main Bearing Failure Monitoring

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Herp

    (The Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Institute, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense, Denmark)

  • Niels L. Pedersen

    (Diagnostics, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, 7330 Brande, Denmark)

  • Esmaeil S. Nadimi

    (The Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Institute, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense, Denmark)

Abstract

Details about a fault’s progression, including the remaining-useful-lifetime (RUL), are key features in monitoring, industrial operation and maintenance (O&M) planning. In order to avoid increases in O&M costs through subjective human involvement and over-conservative control strategies, this work presents models to estimate the RUL for wind turbine main bearing failures. The prediction of the RUL is estimated from a likelihood function based on concepts from prognostics and health management, and survival analysis. The RUL is estimated by training the model on run-to-failure wind turbines, extracting a parametrization of a probability density function. In order to ensure analytical moments, a Weibull distribution is assumed. Alongside the RUL model, the fault’s progression is abstracted as discrete states following the bearing stages from damage detection, through overtemperature warnings, to over overtemperature alarms and failure, and are integrated in a separate assessment model. Assuming a naïve O&M plan (wind turbines are run as close to failure as possible without regards for infrastructure or supply chain constrains), 67 non run-to-failure wind turbines are assessed with respect to their early stopping, revealing the potential RUL lost. These are turbines that have been stopped by the operator prior to their failure. On average it was found that wind turbines are stopped 13 days prior to their failure, accumulating 786 days of potentially lost operations across the 67 wind turbines.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Herp & Niels L. Pedersen & Esmaeil S. Nadimi, 2019. "Assessment of Early Stopping through Statistical Health Prognostic Models for Empirical RUL Estimation in Wind Turbine Main Bearing Failure Monitoring," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2019:i:1:p:83-:d:301186
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/1/83/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/1/83/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nielsen, Jannie Jessen & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard, 2011. "On risk-based operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbine components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 218-229.
    2. Xiao-Sheng Si & Zheng-Xin Zhang & Chang-Hua Hu, 2017. "Data-Driven Remaining Useful Life Prognosis Techniques," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-3-662-54030-5, March.
    3. Blanco, María Isabel, 2009. "The economics of wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1372-1382, August.
    4. García Márquez, Fausto Pedro & Tobias, Andrew Mark & Pinar Pérez, Jesús María & Papaelias, Mayorkinos, 2012. "Condition monitoring of wind turbines: Techniques and methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 169-178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin, Xin & Zhang, Zhaolong & Shi, Xiaoqiang & Ju, Wenbin, 2014. "A review on wind power industry and corresponding insurance market in China: Current status and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1069-1082.
    2. Jin, Xin & Ju, Wenbin & Zhang, Zhaolong & Guo, Lianxin & Yang, Xiangang, 2016. "System safety analysis of large wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1293-1307.
    3. Yeter, B. & Garbatov, Y. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Risk-based maintenance planning of offshore wind turbine farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Tang, Baoping & Song, Tao & Li, Feng & Deng, Lei, 2014. "Fault diagnosis for a wind turbine transmission system based on manifold learning and Shannon wavelet support vector machine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Márquez, Fausto Pedro García & Pérez, Jesús María Pinar & Marugán, Alberto Pliego & Papaelias, Mayorkinos, 2016. "Identification of critical components of wind turbines using FTA over the time," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P2), pages 869-883.
    6. Artigao, Estefania & Martín-Martínez, Sergio & Honrubia-Escribano, Andrés & Gómez-Lázaro, Emilio, 2018. "Wind turbine reliability: A comprehensive review towards effective condition monitoring development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1569-1583.
    7. Bakir, I. & Yildirim, M. & Ursavas, E., 2021. "An integrated optimization framework for multi-component predictive analytics in wind farm operations & maintenance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Pliego Marugán, Alberto & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro & Pinar Pérez, Jesús María, 2022. "A techno-economic model for avoiding conflicts of interest between owners of offshore wind farms and maintenance suppliers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Colak, Ilhami & Fulli, Gianluca & Bayhan, Sertac & Chondrogiannis, Stamatios & Demirbas, Sevki, 2015. "Critical aspects of wind energy systems in smart grid applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-171.
    10. Kang, Jichuan & Sun, Liping & Guedes Soares, C., 2019. "Fault Tree Analysis of floating offshore wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1455-1467.
    11. Li, He & Teixeira, Angelo P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "A two-stage Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of offshore wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1438-1461.
    12. Masoud Asgarpour & John Dalsgaard Sørensen, 2018. "Bayesian Based Diagnostic Model for Condition Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Igba, Joel & Alemzadeh, Kazem & Durugbo, Christopher & Henningsen, Keld, 2015. "Performance assessment of wind turbine gearboxes using in-service data: Current approaches and future trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-159.
    14. Benedikt Wiese & Niels L. Pedersen & Esmaeil S. Nadimi & Jürgen Herp, 2020. "Estimating the Remaining Power Generation of Wind Turbines—An Exploratory Study for Main Bearing Failures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-11, July.
    15. Cambron, P. & Lepvrier, R. & Masson, C. & Tahan, A. & Pelletier, F., 2016. "Power curve monitoring using weighted moving average control charts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 126-135.
    16. Fallahi, F. & Bakir, I. & Yildirim, M. & Ye, Z., 2022. "A chance-constrained optimization framework for wind farms to manage fleet-level availability in condition based maintenance and operations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Hung-Ta Wen & Jau-Huai Lu & Mai-Xuan Phuc, 2021. "Applying Artificial Intelligence to Predict the Composition of Syngas Using Rice Husks: A Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    18. Chen, Xuejun & Yang, Yongming & Cui, Zhixin & Shen, Jun, 2019. "Vibration fault diagnosis of wind turbines based on variational mode decomposition and energy entropy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1100-1109.
    19. Beganovic, Nejra & Söffker, Dirk, 2016. "Structural health management utilization for lifetime prognosis and advanced control strategy deployment of wind turbines: An overview and outlook concerning actual methods, tools, and obtained result," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 68-83.
    20. Sadeghian, Omid & Mohammadpour Shotorbani, Amin & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Risk-averse maintenance scheduling of generation units in combined heat and power systems with demand response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2019:i:1:p:83-:d:301186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.