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Risk Assessment and Value of Action Analysis for Icing Conditions of Wind Turbines Close to Highways

Author

Listed:
  • Sima Rastayesh

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark)

  • Lijia Long

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark
    Department 7: Safety of Structures, Federal Institute of Materials Research and Testing, 12205 Berlin Germany)

  • John Dalsgaard Sørensen

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark)

  • Sebastian Thöns

    (Department 7: Safety of Structures, Federal Institute of Materials Research and Testing, 12205 Berlin Germany
    Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Lyngby, Denmark)

Abstract

The paper presents research results from the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network INFRASTAR in the field of reliability approaches for decision-making for wind turbines and bridges. This paper addresses the application of Bayesian decision analysis for installation of heating systems in wind turbine blades in cases where an ice detection system is already installed in order to allow wind turbines to be placed close to highways. Generally, application of ice detection and heating systems for wind turbines is very relevant in cases where the wind turbines are planned to be placed close to urban areas and highways, where risks need to be considered due to icing events, which may lead to consequences including human fatality, functional disruptions, and/or economic losses. The risk of people being killed in a car passing on highways near a wind turbine due to blades parts or ice pieces being thrown away in cases of over-icing is considered in this paper. The probability of being killed per kilometer and per year is considered for three cases: blade parts thrown away as a result of a partial or total failure of a blade, ice thrown away in two cases, i.e., of stopped wind turbines and of wind turbines in operation. Risks due to blade parts being thrown away cannot be avoided, since low strengths of material, maintenance or manufacturing errors, mechanical or electrical failures may result in failure of a blade or blade part. The blade (parts) thrown away from wind turbines in operation imply possible consequences/fatalities for people near the wind turbines, including in areas close to highways. Similar consequences are relevant for ice being thrown away from wind turbine blades during icing situations. In this paper, we examine the question as to whether it is valuable to put a heating system on the blades in addition to ice detection systems. This is especially interesting in countries with limited space for placing wind turbines; in addition, it is considered if higher power production can be obtained due to less downtime if a heating system is installed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sima Rastayesh & Lijia Long & John Dalsgaard Sørensen & Sebastian Thöns, 2019. "Risk Assessment and Value of Action Analysis for Icing Conditions of Wind Turbines Close to Highways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2653-:d:247301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fakorede, Oloufemi & Feger, Zoé & Ibrahim, Hussein & Ilinca, Adrian & Perron, Jean & Masson, Christian, 2016. "Ice protection systems for wind turbines in cold climate: characteristics, comparisons and analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 662-675.
    2. Memarzadeh, Milad & Pozzi, Matteo, 2016. "Value of information in sequential decision making: Component inspection, permanent monitoring and system-level scheduling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 137-151.
    3. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Albara M. Mustafa & Abbas Barabadi & Tore Markeset & Masoud Naseri, 2021. "An overall performance index for wind farms: a case study in Norway Arctic region," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 12(5), pages 938-950, October.
    2. Gürdal Ertek & Lakshmi Kailas, 2021. "Analyzing a Decade of Wind Turbine Accident News with Topic Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-34, November.
    3. Dimitris Al. Katsaprakakis & Nikos Papadakis & Ioannis Ntintakis, 2021. "A Comprehensive Analysis of Wind Turbine Blade Damage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-31, September.
    4. Sima Rastayesh & Sajjad Bahrebar & Frede Blaabjerg & Dao Zhou & Huai Wang & John Dalsgaard Sørensen, 2019. "A System Engineering Approach Using FMEA and Bayesian Network for Risk Analysis—A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Ivan Kabardin & Sergey Dvoynishnikov & Maxim Gordienko & Sergey Kakaulin & Vadim Ledovsky & Grigoriy Gusev & Vladislav Zuev & Valery Okulov, 2021. "Optical Methods for Measuring Icing of Wind Turbine Blades," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Valery Okulov & Ivan Kabardin & Dmitry Mukhin & Konstantin Stepanov & Nastasia Okulova, 2021. "Physical De-Icing Techniques for Wind Turbine Blades," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.

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