IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i10p2009-d234358.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on Dynamic Evolution Simulation and Sustainability Evaluation Model of China’s Power Supply and Demand System

Author

Listed:
  • Jin-peng Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Beijing 102206, China)

  • Yu Tian

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Beijing 102206, China)

  • Hao Zheng

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Beijing 102206, China)

  • Tao Yi

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

Power supply and demand systems are important support systems for industrial production and residents’ lives. They have multiple influencing factors, and complex mechanisms of interaction exist among these factors. In view of the present sustainability problems faced by China’s power supply and demand system, this research adopts a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the evolution of China’s power supply and demand system, and analyzes the interaction mechanism of various elements of the system. Based on this, an innovative index system for the evaluation of the sustainability of power supply and demand systems is proposed based on the four elements of total amount, structure, technology and environment. Furthermore, by integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and State Space (SS) method, a PCA-SS evaluation model is constructed to explore the development bottleneck of China’s power supply and demand system. The results show that there is still a large gap between the actual sustainability and the ideal range, and that the sustainability of structural and environmental layers needs further improvement. This research expands the knowledge system regarding the evaluation of the sustainability of power supply and demand systems and provides a theoretical reference for the optimization of China’s power supply and demand system.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin-peng Liu & Yu Tian & Hao Zheng & Tao Yi, 2019. "Research on Dynamic Evolution Simulation and Sustainability Evaluation Model of China’s Power Supply and Demand System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:10:p:2009-:d:234358
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/10/2009/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/10/2009/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evgeny Lisin & Daria Shuvalova & Irina Volkova & Wadim Strielkowski, 2018. "Sustainable Development of Regional Power Systems and the Consumption of Electric Energy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-10, April.
    2. Hossam A. Gabbar & Yahya Koraz, 2017. "Risk Assessment of Micro Energy Grid Protection Layers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Nie, S. & Huang, Charley Z. & Huang, G.H. & Li, Y.P. & Chen, J.P. & Fan, Y.R. & Cheng, G.H., 2016. "Planning renewable energy in electric power system for sustainable development under uncertainty – A case study of Beijing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 772-786.
    4. Hosenuzzaman, M. & Rahim, N.A. & Selvaraj, J. & Hasanuzzaman, M. & Malek, A.B.M.A. & Nahar, A., 2015. "Global prospects, progress, policies, and environmental impact of solar photovoltaic power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-297.
    5. Ahn, Joongha & Woo, JongRoul & Lee, Jongsu, 2015. "Optimal allocation of energy sources for sustainable development in South Korea: Focus on the electric power generation industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 78-90.
    6. Chen, Min & Lund, Henrik & Rosendahl, Lasse A. & Condra, Thomas J., 2010. "Energy efficiency analysis and impact evaluation of the application of thermoelectric power cycle to today's CHP systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1231-1238, April.
    7. Huiru Zhao & Sen Guo, 2015. "External Benefit Evaluation of Renewable Energy Power in China for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Kumar, Yogesh & Ringenberg, Jordan & Depuru, Soma Shekara & Devabhaktuni, Vijay K. & Lee, Jin Woo & Nikolaidis, Efstratios & Andersen, Brett & Afjeh, Abdollah, 2016. "Wind energy: Trends and enabling technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 209-224.
    9. Sahoo, Sarat Kumar, 2016. "Renewable and sustainable energy reviews solar photovoltaic energy progress in India: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 927-939.
    10. Zhou, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2015. "Planning sustainable electric-power system with carbon emission abatement through CDM under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 350-364.
    11. Junfeng Yang & Kun Lei & Soonthiam Khu & Wei Meng, 2015. "Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity for Sustainable Development Based on a System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Tieling City, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 885-899, February.
    12. Xiaoyang Sun & Baosheng Zhang & Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Mikael Höök, 2016. "Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, November.
    13. Man Yu & Anthony Halog, 2015. "Solar Photovoltaic Development in Australia—A Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-35, January.
    14. Chenjun Sun & Zengqiang Mi & Hui Ren & Zhipeng Jing & Jinling Lu & David Watts, 2019. "Multi-Dimensional Indexes for the Sustainability Evaluation of an Active Distribution Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, January.
    15. Yi Zuo & Ying-ling Shi & Yu-zhuo Zhang, 2017. "Research on the Sustainable Development of an Economic-Energy-Environment (3E) System Based on System Dynamics (SD): A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-23, September.
    16. Shi, Kaifang & Chen, Yun & Yu, Bailang & Xu, Tingbao & Chen, Zuoqi & Liu, Rui & Li, Linyi & Wu, Jianping, 2016. "Modeling spatiotemporal CO2 (carbon dioxide) emission dynamics in China from DMSP-OLS nighttime stable light data using panel data analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 523-533.
    17. Raza, Syed Shabbar & Janajreh, Isam & Ghenai, Chaouki, 2014. "Sustainability index approach as a selection criteria for energy storage system of an intermittent renewable energy source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 909-920.
    18. Zhong, Haiwang & Xia, Qing & Chen, Yuguo & Kang, Chongqing, 2015. "Energy-saving generation dispatch toward a sustainable electric power industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 14-25.
    19. Sumabat, Ana Karmela & Lopez, Neil Stephen & Yu, Krista Danielle & Hao, Han & Li, Richard & Geng, Yong & Chiu, Anthony S.F., 2016. "Decomposition analysis of Philippine CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 795-804.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Jian & Zhong, Xiaoyi & Wang, Jing & Huang, Yuan & Bai, Xuetao & Wang, Xiaonan & Shah, Nilay & Xie, Shan & Zhao, Yingru, 2021. "Relative optimization potential: A novel perspective to address trade-off challenges in urban energy system planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Tiantian & Nakagawa, Kei & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2023. "Evaluating solar photovoltaic power efficiency based on economic dimensions for 26 countries using a three-stage data envelopment analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    2. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Changyu Zhou & Guohe Huang & Jiapei Chen, 2019. "A Type-2 Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Fractional Integrated Modeling Method for Energy System Management of Uncertainties and Risks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Khaled Obaideen & Abdul Ghani Olabi & Yaser Al Swailmeen & Nabila Shehata & Mohammad Ali Abdelkareem & Abdul Hai Alami & Cristina Rodriguez & Enas Taha Sayed, 2023. "Solar Energy: Applications, Trends Analysis, Bibliometric Analysis and Research Contribution to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-34, January.
    5. Yan Nie & Guoxing Zhang, 2020. "Indicator system to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of China clean power systems," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 1381-1401, October.
    6. Jun Yang & Xin Feng & Yufei Tang & Jun Yan & Haibo He & Chao Luo, 2015. "A Power System Optimal Dispatch Strategy Considering the Flow of Carbon Emissions and Large Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Qing Guan & Haizhong An & Xiaoqing Hao & Xiaoliang Jia, 2016. "The Impact of Countries’ Roles on the International Photovoltaic Trade Pattern: The Complex Networks Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Stojiljković, Mirko M., 2017. "Bi-level multi-objective fuzzy design optimization of energy supply systems aided by problem-specific heuristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1231-1251.
    9. Abbas, Sajid & Yuan, Yanping & Zhou, Jinzhi & Hassan, Atazaz & Yu, Min & Yasheng, Ji, 2022. "Experimental and analytical analysis of the impact of different base plate materials and design parameters on the performance of the photovoltaic/thermal system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 522-536.
    10. Mollik, Sazib & Rashid, M.M. & Hasanuzzaman, M. & Karim, M.E. & Hosenuzzaman, M., 2016. "Prospects, progress, policies, and effects of rural electrification in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 553-567.
    11. Reinhold Lehneis & Daniela Thrän, 2024. "In 50 Shades of Orange: Germany’s Photovoltaic Power Generation Landscape," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-12, August.
    12. Ishizaka, Alessio & Siraj, Sajid & Nemery, Philippe, 2016. "Which energy mix for the UK (United Kingdom)? An evolutive descriptive mapping with the integrated GAIA (graphical analysis for interactive aid)–AHP (analytic hierarchy process) visualization tool," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 602-611.
    13. Parul Bhyan & Bhavna Shrivastava & Nand Kumar, 2023. "Systematic literature review of life cycle sustainability assessment system for residential buildings: using bibliometric analysis 2000–2020," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(12), pages 13637-13665, December.
    14. Yassir El Karkri & Alexis B. Rey-Boué & Hassan El Moussaoui & Johannes Stöckl & Thomas I. Strasser, 2019. "Improved Control of Grid-connected DFIG-based Wind Turbine using Proportional-Resonant Regulators during Unbalanced Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-21, October.
    15. Heo, SungKu & Byun, Jaewon & Ifaei, Pouya & Ko, Jaerak & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2024. "Towards mega-scale decarbonized industrial park (Mega-DIP): Generative AI-driven techno-economic and environmental assessment of renewable and sustainable energy utilization in petrochemical industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    16. Ibrahim, Amin & Rahnamayan, Shahryar & Vargas Martin, Miguel & Yilbas, Bekir, 2014. "Multi-objective thermal analysis of a thermoelectric device: Influence of geometric features on device characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 305-317.
    17. Kai Ma & Shubing Hu & Jie Yang & Chunxia Dou & Josep M. Guerrero, 2017. "Energy Trading and Pricing in Microgrids with Uncertain Energy Supply: A Three-Stage Hierarchical Game Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    18. Rivera-Niquepa, Juan David & De Oliveira-De Jesus, Paulo M. & Yusta, Jose M., 2025. "Trend-based multi-period decomposition and decoupling methodology for energy-related carbon dioxide emissions: A case study of Portugal," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    19. Zheng Huang & Laisuo Su & Yunjie Yang & Linsong Gao & Xinyu Liu & Heng Huang & Yubai Li & Yongchen Song, 2023. "Three-Dimensional Simulation on the Effects of Different Parameters and Pt Loading on the Long-Term Performance of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-22, February.
    20. Hossein Yousefi & Saheb Ghanbari Motlagh & Mohammad Montazeri, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Decision-Making System for Wind Farm Site-Selection Using Geographic Information System (GIS): Case Study of Semnan Province, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-27, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:10:p:2009-:d:234358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.