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Reliability Assessment of Power Systems with Photovoltaic Power Stations Based on Intelligent State Space Reduction and Pseudo-Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Wenxia Liu

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Dapeng Guo

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Yahui Xu

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Rui Cheng

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Zhiqiang Wang

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Yueqiao Li

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

As the number and capacity of photovoltaic (PV) power stations increase, it is of great significance to evaluate the PV-connected power systems in an effective, reasonable, and quick way. In order to overcome the challenge of PV’s time-sequential characteristic and improve upon the computational efficiency, this paper presents a new methodology to evaluate the reliability of the power system with photovoltaic power stations, which combines intelligent state space reduction and a pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo simulation (PMCS). First, a non-aggregate Markov model of photovoltaic output is established, which effectively retains some time-sequential representation of the PV output. Then, the differential evolution algorithm (DE) is introduced into the sampling stage of PMCS to carry out an intelligent state space reduction (ISSR). By using the DE algorithm, success states are searched out and removed, thus the state space is reduced and formed with a high density of loss-of-load. Hence, unnecessary samplings are avoided, which optimizes the PMCS sampling mechanism and improves the computational efficiency. Finally, the proposed method is tested in the modified IEEE RTS-79 system. The results indicate that this new method has a better computational efficiency than the time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method (TMCS) and pure PMCS. In addition, the effectiveness and feasibility of this method are also verified.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenxia Liu & Dapeng Guo & Yahui Xu & Rui Cheng & Zhiqiang Wang & Yueqiao Li, 2018. "Reliability Assessment of Power Systems with Photovoltaic Power Stations Based on Intelligent State Space Reduction and Pseudo-Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:6:p:1431-:d:150422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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