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Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy

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  • Ching-Chih Chou

    (School of Business, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Zhongshan Institute, Zhongshan 528402, China)

  • Chien-Wen Shen

    (Department of Business Administration, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan)

  • Dapeng Gao

    (Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

  • Yang Gao

    (School of Business, Dalian University of Technology, Panjin 124221, China)

  • Kai Wang

    (College of Business Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China)

  • Sang-Bing Tsai

    (School of Business, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Zhongshan Institute, Zhongshan 528402, China
    Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development of China Civil Aviation, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China)

Abstract

While the introduction of a high speed rail (HSR) provides passengers with another more environmentally friendly, convenient, and time-saving transport option, it also disrupts the existing passenger transport market. This study adopts time series analysis to model the dynamic competition in a regional passenger transport market when an HSR is introduced. The analyses include examining the long-run equilibrium and causal relationships, and the short-run causality and dynamic relationships between transport modes. In addition, based on the model we conduct impulse response tests and variance decomposition tests to further interpret the interactions between two transport modes. An empirical study is carried out, and the findings indicate that the HSR has a negative impact on conventional rail and air transport in the long-run. In the short-run dynamics, the air passenger transport volume could be regarded as a good predictor of HSR passenger volume. In turn, the HSR passenger volume could be used to predict conventional rail transport volume. The operations of HSR and conventional rail are complementary in the short term. From the short-run market viewpoint, the HSR and conventional rail meet different kinds of passenger demand. Therefore, a previous increased passenger volume for the HSR implies an overall increasing demand for regional transport. Consequently, the past increased HSR passenger volume could be used to predict the growth of conventional rail transport. Through the impulse response test, we can further track the responses of the three transport modes to the shocks from themselves and each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Ching-Chih Chou & Chien-Wen Shen & Dapeng Gao & Yang Gao & Kai Wang & Sang-Bing Tsai, 2018. "Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:1151-:d:144625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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