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A New Hybrid Prediction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on EEMD-PE and LSSVM Optimized by the GSA

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Lu

    () (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Lin Ye

    () (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Bohao Sun

    () (China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China)

  • Cihang Zhang

    () (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yongning Zhao

    () (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jingzhu Teng

    () (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

Wind power time series data always exhibits nonlinear and non-stationary features, making it very difficult to accurately predict. In this paper, a novel hybrid wind power time series prediction model, based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition-permutation entropy (EEMD-PE), the least squares support vector machine model (LSSVM), and gravitational search algorithm (GSA), is proposed to improve accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting. To process the data, original wind power series were decomposed by EEMD-PE techniques into a number of subsequences with obvious complexity differences. Then, a new heuristic GSA algorithm was utilized to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM. The optimized model was developed for wind power forecasting and improved regression prediction accuracy. The proposed model was validated with practical wind power generation data from the Hebei province, China. A comprehensive error metric analysis was carried out to compare the performance of our method with other approaches. The results showed that the proposed model enhanced forecasting performance compared to other benchmark models.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Lu & Lin Ye & Bohao Sun & Cihang Zhang & Yongning Zhao & Jingzhu Teng, 2018. "A New Hybrid Prediction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on EEMD-PE and LSSVM Optimized by the GSA," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:697-:d:137246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wind power prediction; ensemble empirical mode decomposition-permutation entropy (EEMD-PE); least squares support vector machine (LSSVM); heuristic algorithm;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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