IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v14y2024i12p2175-d1532494.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Study on the Impact of the Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in China

Author

Listed:
  • Guifang Su

    (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China)

  • Zhe Chen

    (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China)

  • Wei Li

    (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xianli Xia

    (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China)

Abstract

The rural population aging poses a great challenge to China’s agricultural production, which is dominated by small farmers. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces or cities (except Tibet) in China from 2005 to 2020, the DEA-Malmquist index is employed to measure the agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) in each province (city), and then the mediation effect model is used to reveal the mechanism by which the rural population aging affects the ATFP through farmland transfer, agricultural social services, and agricultural machinery. The results show that the rural population aging has made a significant contribution to the ATFP, and farmland transfer, agricultural socialized services and agricultural machinery have a intermediary effect on the increase of the ATFP. Further decomposition of ATFP reveals that the rural population aging can significantly contribute to the scale efficiency and technical progress rate through farmland transfer, agricultural socialization services and agricultural machinery, but does not have a significant effect on pure technical efficiency. In order to promote the high-quality and high-efficiency development of agriculture in the context of population aging, it is necessary to optimize the market environment for farmland transfer, improve the agricultural socialized service system, and continue to strengthen agricultural science and technology innovation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guifang Su & Zhe Chen & Wei Li & Xianli Xia, 2024. "Study on the Impact of the Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:12:p:2175-:d:1532494
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/12/2175/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/12/2175/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tasso Adamopoulos & Diego Restuccia, 2014. "The Size Distribution of Farms and International Productivity Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1667-1697, June.
    2. Fang, Dan & Chen, Jiangqiang & Wang, Saige & Chen, Bin, 2024. "Can agricultural mechanization enhance the climate resilience of food production? Evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    3. Tan, Shuhao & Heerink, Nico & Kruseman, Gideon & Qu, Futian, 2008. "Do fragmented landholdings have higher production costs? Evidence from rice farmers in Northeastern Jiangxi province, P.R. China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 347-358, September.
    4. Qiao, Fangbin, 2017. "Increasing wage, mechanization, and agriculture production in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 249-260.
    5. Chenchen Ren & Xinyue Zhou & Chen Wang & Yaolin Guo & Yu Diao & Sisi Shen & Stefan Reis & Wanyue Li & Jianming Xu & Baojing Gu, 2023. "Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 616(7955), pages 96-103, April.
    6. Houjian Li & Xiaolei Zhou & Mengqian Tang & Lili Guo, 2022. "Impact of Population Aging and Renewable Energy Consumption on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity in Rural China: Evidence from Panel VAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, May.
    7. Ruisheng Li & Jiaoyan Chen & Dingde Xu, 2024. "The Impact of Agricultural Socialized Service on Grain Production: Evidence from Rural China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, May.
    8. Chen, Po-Chi & Yu, Ming-Miin & Chang, Ching-Cheng & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2008. "Total factor productivity growth in China's agricultural sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 580-593, December.
    9. Stephen F. Hamilton & Timothy J. Richards & Aric P. Shafran & Kathryn N. Vasilaky, 2022. "Farm labor productivity and the impact of mechanization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1435-1459, August.
    10. Tingting Li & Hongwei Lu & Qiyou Luo & Guojing Li & Mingjie Gao, 2024. "The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Cropping Structure: Evidence from China’s Provinces," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    11. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1991. "Public Research Resource Allocation in Chinese Agriculture: A Test of Induced Technological Innovation Hypotheses," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 55-73, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuanying Chi & Wenbing Zhou & Zhenyu Wang & Yu Hu & Xiao Han, 2021. "The Influence Paths of Agricultural Mechanization on Green Agricultural Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yan, Jingyang & Wang, Fuhao, 2024. "Impact of population aging on food security in the context of artificial intelligence: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Tomasz Rokicki & Aleksandra Perkowska & Bogdan Klepacki & Piotr Bórawski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Konrad Michalski, 2021. "Changes in Energy Consumption in Agriculture in the EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Hui Zhang & Jing Li & Tianshu Quan, 2023. "Strengthening or Weakening: The Impact of an Aging Rural Workforce on Agricultural Economic Resilience in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Stanisław Bielski & Renata Marks-Bielska & Paweł Wiśniewski, 2022. "Investigation of Energy and Economic Balance and GHG Emissions in the Production of Different Cultivars of Buckwheat ( Fagopyrum esculentum Moench): A Case Study in Northeastern Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-24, December.
    6. Wu, Qi & Liu, Shuyun & Fan, Shenggen, 2024. "Aging Labor Force, Climate Change and the Path to Green Total Factor Productivity in Chinese Agriculture," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343729, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Cao, Huoqing & Chen, Shiyi & Xi, Xican, 2023. "Aging, migration, and structural transformation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Meng, Meng & Zhang, Wuke & Zhu, Xi & Shi, Qinghua, 2024. "Agricultural mechanization and rural worker mobility: Evidence from the Agricultural Machinery Purchase Subsidies programme in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Do, Manh Hung & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Grote, Ulrike, 2023. "Land consolidation, rice production, and agricultural transformation: Evidence from household panel data for Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-173.
    10. Wang, Xiaobing & Yu, Xiaohua, "undated". "Scale Effects, Technical Efficiency and Land Lease in China," 2011 ASAE 7th International Conference, October 13-15, Hanoi, Vietnam 290658, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    11. Chaoran Chen, 2017. "Untitled Land, Occupational Choice, and Agricultural Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 91-121, October.
    12. Julián Arteaga & Nicolás de Roux & Margarita Gáfaro & Ana María Ibáñez & Heitor S. Pellegrina, 2025. "Farm Size Distribution, Weather Shocks, and Agricultural Productivity," Borradores de Economia 1305, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Klaus Deininger & Denys Nizalov & Sudhir K Singh, 2013. "Are mega-farms the future of global agriculture? Exploring the farm size-productivity relationship for large commercial farms in Ukraine," Discussion Papers 49, Kyiv School of Economics.
    14. Aragón, Fernando M. & Restuccia, Diego & Rud, Juan Pablo, 2022. "Are small farms really more productive than large farms?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    15. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2019. "The productivity impact of climate change: Evidence from Australia's Millennium drought," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-191.
    16. Jose Joaquin Lopez & Jesica Torres, 2020. "Size-dependent policies, talent misallocation, and the return to skill," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 59-93, October.
    17. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang & Shuanping Dai, 2020. "Growth, development, and structural change at the firm-level: The example of the PR China," Papers 2012.14503, arXiv.org.
    18. Daniel A. Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques & Christine Richmond, 2020. "A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 361-393, June.
    19. Xu, Guangyu & Chen, Huang, 2025. "Inclusive growth dilemma: Weighing the pros and cons of land market reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Majiwa, Eucabeth Bosibori Opande & Lee, Boon & Wilson, Clevo, 2015. "Multi-lateral multi-output measurement of productivity: the case of African agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212769, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:12:p:2175-:d:1532494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.