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Simulated Spatial Model of Russian Urban Development
[Имитационная Пространственная Модель Развития Российских Городов]

Author

Listed:
  • Kirill V. Rostislav

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Yury Yu. Ponomarev

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Darya M. Radchenko

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

The paper presents a spatial simulation model covering 237 cities and towns in 76 subjects of the Russian Federation. The model describes the dynamics of the population and the number of enterprises in the cities, and also makes it possible to make medium-term forecasts with a high degree of accuracy. The work tested hypotheses about the impact on intercity migration and other socio-economic processes that determine the differences between the cities in average wages, the quality of urban environment and other factors, and also considered examples of the application of the model to assess the socio-economic effects of high-speed roads construction (on the example of the Sochi – Tuapse road) and the effects of the closure of city-forming enterprises in several single-industry towns. The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill V. Rostislav & Yury Yu. Ponomarev & Darya M. Radchenko, 2022. "Simulated Spatial Model of Russian Urban Development [Имитационная Пространственная Модель Развития Российских Городов]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 5, pages 20-33, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r2242
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    simulation model; migration; cities; single-industry towns; infrastructure projects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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