An Analysis of the Sources of COVID-19 Resilience and Vulnerability of Turkey in the First Wave of COVID-19

This paper aims to analyze the effects of the macro prevention efforts undertaken in Turkey at three different levels. We particularly focus on the effect of COVID-19 prevention arrangements on the health system resilience and resistance at a systemic level. Similarly, the social and health vulnerability of the regional populations to COVID-19 was measured, to encapsulate, in the first wave, to what extent these populations were able to be protected from the worst of the epidemic. We use regional and provincial COVID-19 data set (Hayat-Eve-Sığar module) together with the socioeconomic parameters (TUIK), and health system parameters (Health Statistics Yearbook) to create a map for COVID-19 pandemic, prevention arrangements, and economic impact of the pandemic. The results suggest that especially the health equilibrium of the Southeastern and Eastern Anatolian sections of the health system was protected (for the duration of the 1st wave), as a result of the lockdowns, whereas the economic collateral effects have been much more equally distributed among the provinces. At this stage, it is possible to state that, for the next waves of COVID-19 in Turkey, there is a potential economic benefit to implement less prevention at a national level. Moreover, we look at the effect of COVID-19 testing capacity on controlling the pandemic in Turkey to investigate to what extent testing has been able to identify, and control outbreaks. We find that the Turkish testing capacity looks in line with the overall health system capacity in the country and provides a neutral effect for controlling the pandemic.