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Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements

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  • Charles W. Calomiris

Abstract

As a matter of arithmetic, the trends of US government debt and deficits will eventually result in an outrageously high government debt-to-GDP ratio. But when exactly will the United States hit the constraint of infeasibility and how exactly will policy adjust to it? This article considers fiscal dominance, which is the possibility that accumulating government debt and deficits can produce increases in inflation that "dominate" central bank intentions to keep inflation low. Is it a serious possibility for the United States in the near future? And how might various policies change (especially those related to the banking system) if fiscal dominance became a reality?

Suggested Citation

  • Charles W. Calomiris, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(4), pages 223-233, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:96299
    DOI: 10.20955/r.105.223-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charles W. Calomiris & Stephen H. Haber, 2015. "Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 10177-2.
    3. Peter Stella, 2021. "Interpreting Modern Monetary Reality," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 33(4), pages 8-23, December.
    4. Calomiris, Charles W. & Mason, Joseph R. & Wheelock, David C., 2023. "Did doubling reserve requirements cause the 1937–38 recession? New evidence on the impact of reserve requirements on bank reserve demand and lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Calomiris, Charles W & Domowitz, Ian, 1989. "Asset Substitution, Money Demand, and the Inflation Process in Brazil," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 78-89, February.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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