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Asset Bubbles: Detecting and Measuring Them Are Not Easy Tasks

Author

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  • Silvio Contessi
  • Usa Kerdnunvong

Abstract

Market bubbles are linked to many historic financial crises, but asset price run-ups can reflect both fundamental value changes and psychological contagion. Using historic values of commonly held assets (stocks and real estate), a novel ?exuberance index? offers a way to compare bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvio Contessi & Usa Kerdnunvong, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Detecting and Measuring Them Are Not Easy Tasks," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlre:00079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    4. Morris A. Davis & Andreas Lehnert & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "The Rent‐Price Ratio For The Aggregate Stock Of Owner‐Occupied Housing," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(2), pages 279-284, June.
    5. repec:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:reinhart:rogoff is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Vitor M. A. da Fonseca & Manuel A. R. da Fonseca, 2019. "A Simple Approach to Assess if a Financial ¡°Bubble¡± is Present: The Case of Bitcoin," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 1-10, July.
    2. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-33.
    4. Mansur, Alfan, 2017. "10 Tahun Pasca Krisis Keuangan Global, Dimana Posisi Indonesia Sekarang? [10 Years After the Global Financial Crisis, Where is Indonesia’s Position Now?]," MPRA Paper 93945, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Dec 2017.

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