IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/99289.html

The Future of U.S. Productivity: Cautious Optimism amid Uncertainty

Author

Abstract

Recent productivity growth likely reflects both cyclical and structural factors, including remote work and AI.

Suggested Citation

  • Nida Çakır Melek & Alex Gallin, 2024. "The Future of U.S. Productivity: Cautious Optimism amid Uncertainty," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:99289
    DOI: 10.18651/ER/v109n9CakirMelekGallin
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/10602/EconomicReviewV109N9CakirMelekGallin.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18651/ER/v109n9CakirMelekGallin?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Natalia Emanuel & Emma Harrington, 2024. "Working Remotely? Selection, Treatment, and the Market for Remote Work," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 528-559, October.
    2. José María Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2023. "The Evolution of Work from Home," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 23-50, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandra Fenizia & Tom Kirchmaier, 2024. "Not incentivized yet efficient: Working from home in the public sector," CEP Discussion Papers dp2036, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Gordon B. Dahl & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2024. "Work from Home and Disability Employment," NBER Working Papers 32943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jean-Victor Alipour, 2026. "Performance Pay in the Hybrid Work Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 12680, CESifo.
    4. Benjamin W. Cowan & Todd R. Jones, 2025. "Social Substitution? Time Use Responses to Increased Workplace Isolation," CESifo Working Paper Series 12117, CESifo.
    5. Nicholas Bloom & Gordon B. Dahl & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2026. "Work from Home and Disability Employment," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 179-195, June.
    6. Cowan, Benjamin & Jones, Todd R., 2025. "Social Substitution? Time Use Responses to Increased Workplace Isolation," IZA Discussion Papers 18112, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Nicole Nestoriak & David H. Oh, 2026. "Work from Home: A Task-Based Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: The Changing Nature of Work, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gaetano Basso & Davide Dottori & Sara Formai, 2025. "Working from home and labour productivity: firm-level evidence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1508, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Ketter, Laura & Morris, Todd & Yu, Lizi, 2025. "A New Equilibrium: COVID-19 Lockdowns and WFH Persistence," IZA Discussion Papers 17975, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Laura Ketter & Todd Morris & Lizi Yu, 2025. "A new equilibrium: COVID-19 lockdowns and WFH persistence," Papers 2506.16671, arXiv.org.
    11. Feuillade, Mylène & Goux, Dominique & Maurin, Eric, 2025. "Rise in Home Working and Spousal Labor Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 17997, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Mehrzad B. Baktash, 2026. "Home Alone: Work from Home and Loneliness," Research Papers in Economics 2026-04, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    13. Basso, Gaetano & De Paola, Maria & Lattanzio, Salvatore & Paradisi, Matteo, 2026. "Workplace Flexibility and the Motherhood Penalty: Evidence from the Diffusion of Remote Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 21486, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Laszlo Goerke & Markus M. Grabka & Viola Hilbert & Yue Huang, 2026. "Industrial Relations and Working from Home in Germany during the COVID-19 Pandemic," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1241, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    15. Jan Bietenbeck & Natalie Irmert & Therese Nilsson, 2026. "Individualism and working from home," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 64(2), pages 491-507, April.
    16. Askenazy, Philippe & Di Nallo, Ugo & Ramajo, Ismaël, 2026. "Post-Covid Telework and Productivity: A Large Scale Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 18655, IZA Network @ LISER.
    17. Achard, Pascal & Belot, Michèle & Chevalier, Arnaud, 2025. "When Parents Work from Home," IZA Discussion Papers 17957, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Goulas, Sofoklis, 2025. "The Value of Remote Work: A Correspondence Experiment on Tutors," IZA Discussion Papers 17592, IZA Network @ LISER.
    19. Fang, Tony & Gunderson, Morley & Hartley, John & King, Graham & Ming, Hui, 2025. "Determinants and Effects of Remote Work Arrangements: Evidence from an Employer Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 18020, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Katelyn Cranney & Steven J. Davis & Mathias Dolls & Pablo Zarate, 2026. "Work from Home and Fertility," Working Papers 2026-36, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:99289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kira Lillard (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.