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Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion

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Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been pronounced for prime-age and college-educated individuals, while the decline in job finding for people who are out of the labor force has been driven by younger and less-educated individuals. These demographic patterns differ from job-finding rates during typical economic expansions and imply both a cooling and a restructuring within the labor market.

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  • Ingrid Chen & Marianna Kudlyak & Riva Mikhlin, 2026. "Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(20), pages 1-6, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:103594
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arthur M. Okun, 1973. "Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 207-262.
    2. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
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