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Fiscal Management of Aggregate Demand: The Effectiveness of Labor Tax Credits

Author

Listed:
  • Axelle Ferriere

    (Sciences Po & CNRS)

  • Gaston Navarro

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

We use a quantitative heterogeneous agent model with nominal rigidities and unemployment risk to analyze the effectiveness of several fiscal policies in stabilizing a demand-driven recession. The model delivers empirically realistic distributions of marginal propensities to consume (mpc) and labor participation elasticities (lpe) and matches the cross-sectional incidence of unemployment risk over the business cycle. We consider three fiscal stabilization packages: (i) a transfer to all low-income households, (ii) an increase in unemployment benefits to unemployed households, and (iii) an increase in labor tax credits to low-income working households. The labor tax credit is the most effective package to attenuate the recession, as it targets both high-mpc and high-lpe households and thus jointly stimulates labor and consumption. This result holds despite the recession resulting in higher unemployment risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Axelle Ferriere & Gaston Navarro, 2025. "Fiscal Management of Aggregate Demand: The Effectiveness of Labor Tax Credits," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(3), pages 733-778, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:73:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1057_s41308-025-00287-w
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-025-00287-w
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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