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Medicare payment cuts continue to restrain inflation

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Abstract

A steady downward trend in health-care services price inflation over the past decade has been a major factor holding down core inflation. Much of this downward trend reflects lower payments from public insurance programs. Looking ahead, current legislative guidelines imply considerable restraint on future public insurance payment growth. Therefore, overall health-care services price inflation is unlikely to rebound and appears likely to continue to be a drag on inflation.

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  • Jeffrey Clemens & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2016. "Medicare payment cuts continue to restrain inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abe Dunn & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2014. "Do Physicians Possess Market Power?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 159-193.
    2. Jeffrey Clemens & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2017. "In the Shadow of a Giant: Medicare’s Influence on Private Physician Payments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 1-39.
    3. Dunn, Abe & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2015. "Physician payments under health care reform," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 89-105.
    4. Jeffrey Clemens & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2014. "How much do Medicare cuts reduce inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Jeffrey Clemens & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Tímea Laura Molnár, 2015. "The Anatomy of Physician Payments: Contracting Subject to Complexity," NBER Working Papers 21642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Yifan Cao & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2013. "Why do measures of inflation disagree?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    1. Clemens, Jeffrey & Gottlieb, Joshua D. & Molnár, Tímea Laura, 2017. "Do health insurers innovate? Evidence from the anatomy of physician payments," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 153-167.
    2. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, uncertainty, and monetary policy," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 194-207, October.
    3. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the \"Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals\" 59th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, C," Speech 971, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2016. "Non-Linear Phillips Curves with Inflation Regime-Switching," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Tim Mahedy & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2017. "What's Down with Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. John C. Williams, 2017. "Interest Rates and the \\"New Normal\\"," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2018. "Has Inflation Sustainably Reached Target?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Adam Hale Shapiro, "undated". "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    9. John C. Williams, 2017. "Interest Rates and the “New Normal”," Speech 182, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. John C. Williams, 2017. "What’s the Future of Interest Rates? The Answer’s in the Stars," Speech 183, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," Working Paper Series 2022-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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