IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fan/pripri/vhtml10.3280-pri2012-003003.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scelte di spesa e trend epidemiologici: un modello di simulazione

Author

Listed:
  • Walter Ricciardi
  • Silvia Longhi
  • Antonio Giulio de Belvis
  • Roberto Falvo
  • Tiziana Sabetta
  • Andrea Silenzi
  • Pessina Eugenio Anessi

Abstract

The Report Salute Italia 2028 aims at estimating the health needs of the Italian population by 2028 as a planning tool that can be used in the decision making process. The development of forecasts, trends and scenarios is helpful in identifying the actions to be taken with an evidence-based approach, in order to try to align the health services supply with the emerging health needs. The analysis is based on a set of indicators recognized at the national and international level. Most data derive from the Italian Observatory Healthcare Report and statistical models have been used to estimate future trends. An effort was made to develop a methodology able to link the trends emerged to the economic-financial and supply perspective. The report highlights which will be the peculiar needs of the Italian population and the main critical situations in the span time considered. Core indicators have been selected and analyzed regarding the following areas: demographic scenario, burden of disease (tumors, cardiovascular and infectious diseases, diabetes), institutional framework and health care expenditure. The financial crisis in Italy can affect substantially the crucial sector of the health care. The spending review process should avoid horizontal policies that can reduce the health expenditure in the short term, but resulting in the long term in a reduction of the health services covered and, thus, of the health status of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Ricciardi & Silvia Longhi & Antonio Giulio de Belvis & Roberto Falvo & Tiziana Sabetta & Andrea Silenzi & Pessina Eugenio Anessi, 2012. "Scelte di spesa e trend epidemiologici: un modello di simulazione," PRISMA Economia - Societ? - Lavoro, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(3), pages 14-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:fan:pripri:v:html10.3280/pri2012-003003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/Scheda_Rivista.aspx?IDArticolo=50129&Tipo=ArticoloPDF
    Download Restriction: Single articles can be downloaded buying download credits, for info: https://www.francoangeli.it/DownloadCredit
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
    2. Colin D Mathers & Dejan Loncar, 2006. "Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(11), pages 1-20, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jia Lu & Shabana Jamani & Joseph Benjamen & Eric Agbata & Olivia Magwood & Kevin Pottie, 2020. "Global Mental Health and Services for Migrants in Primary Care Settings in High-Income Countries: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-28, November.
    2. Matthijs van den Berg & Filip Smit & Theo Vos & Pieter H M van Baal, 2011. "Cost-Effectiveness of Opportunistic Screening and Minimal Contact Psychotherapy to Prevent Depression in Primary Care Patients," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(8), pages 1-7, August.
    3. Ide, Hiroo & Mollahaliloglu, Salih, 2009. "How firms set prices for medical materials: A multi-country study," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 73-78, September.
    4. Colombier, Carsten & Weber, Werner, 2009. "Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis," MPRA Paper 26747, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2009.
    5. Eldon Spackman & Stewart Richmond & Mark Sculpher & Martin Bland & Stephen Brealey & Rhian Gabe & Ann Hopton & Ada Keding & Harriet Lansdown & Sara Perren & David Torgerson & Ian Watt & Hugh MacPherso, 2014. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Acupuncture, Counselling and Usual Care in Treating Patients with Depression: The Results of the ACUDep Trial," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-12, November.
    6. Peele, Morgan & Wolf, Sharon, 2020. "Predictors of anxiety and depressive symptoms among teachers in Ghana: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    7. Carsten Hinrichsen & Vibeke Jenny Koushede & Katrine Rich Madsen & Line Nielsen & Nanna Gram Ahlmark & Ziggi Ivan Santini & Charlotte Meilstrup, 2020. "Implementing Mental Health Promotion Initiatives—Process Evaluation of the ABCs of Mental Health in Denmark," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-26, August.
    8. Pammolli, Fabio & Salerno, Nicola, 2011. "Le differenze regionali nella governance della spesa sanitaria. La sanità alla sfide del federalismo: il modello SaniRegio di CeRM [Regional differences in the governance of health care expenditure," MPRA Paper 36934, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. DE DONDER, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre, 2011. "Private, social and self insurance for long-term care: A political economy analysis," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011053, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Tavares, Lara Patrício & Zantomio, Francesca, 2017. "Inequity in healthcare use among older people after 2008: The case of southern European countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(10), pages 1063-1071.
    11. Gianni Tognoni & Alejandro Macchia, 2020. "Health as a Human Right: A Fake News in a Post-human World?," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 63(2), pages 270-276, December.
    12. Massimo Baldini & Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2008. "Assessing the implications of long-term care policies in Italy: a microsimulation approach," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 47-72.
    13. Błażej Łyszczarz, 2018. "Determinanty wydatków na zdrowie w gospodarstwach domowych w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 137-157.
    14. Renske Kok & Mauricio Avendano & Teresa Bago d’Uva & Johan Mackenbach, 2012. "Can Reporting Heterogeneity Explain Differences in Depressive Symptoms Across Europe?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 105(2), pages 191-210, January.
    15. Emmanuel Peprah & Elisabet Caler & Anya Snyder & Fassil Ketema, 2020. "Deconstructing Syndemics: The Many Layers of Clustering Multi-Comorbidities in People Living with HIV," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-7, June.
    16. Qiumei Xu & Fangfen Yuan & Xuemei Shen & Hui Wen & Wei Li & Bei Cheng & Jing Wu, 2014. "Polymorphisms of C242T and A640G in CYBA Gene and the Risk of Coronary Artery Disease: A Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, January.
    17. Hoehun Ha & Wei Tu, 2018. "An Ecological Study on the Spatially Varying Relationship between County-Level Suicide Rates and Altitude in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, April.
    18. Eduardo Martínez-Martínez & María Luisa Zaragoza & Elmer Solano & Brenda Figueroa & Patricia Zúñiga & Juan P Laclette, 2012. "Health Research Funding in Mexico: The Need for a Long-Term Agenda," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Zarish Noreen & Christopher A. Loffredo & Attya Bhatti & Jyothirmai J. Simhadri & Gail Nunlee-Bland & Thomas Nnanabu & Peter John & Jahangir S. Khan & Somiranjan Ghosh, 2020. "Transcriptional Profiling and Biological Pathway(s) Analysis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Pakistani Population," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-20, August.
    20. Joern Birkmann & Susan Cutter & Dale Rothman & Torsten Welle & Matthias Garschagen & Bas Ruijven & Brian O’Neill & Benjamin Preston & Stefan Kienberger & Omar Cardona & Tiodora Siagian & Deny Hidayati, 2015. "Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 53-68, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fan:pripri:v:html10.3280/pri2012-003003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefania Rosato (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/sommario.aspx?IDRivista=156 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.