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Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007

Author

Listed:
  • W. Adrián Risso Adrián Risso
  • Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera

Abstract

El objetivo de este estudio es estimar empíricamente las relaciones de largo plazo y los efectos umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México. Se muestra la existencia de tal relación a través de un vector cointegrado entre el crecimiento económico (PIB real) y la tasa de inflación (medido por el Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor), y se encuentra una elasticidad significativamente negativa. Además, la relación causal entre estas dos series es estudiada mediante una prueba más sólida que la de Granger; sin embargo, no encontramos ninguna dirección de causalidad entre las series. Las estimaciones del modelo de valores umbrales sugiere un 9% como el valor umbral (punto de ruptura estructural) entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico, lo cual significa que valores de inflación por encima del umbral tienen un impacto negativo sobre el crecimiento económico en México. Clasificación JEL: E31, O40, O42.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Adrián Risso Adrián Risso & Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera, 2010. "Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 29(2), pages 77-98, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:29:y:2010:i:2:id:83
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos29.2-3
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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