IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ere/journl/v29y2010i2id83.html

Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007

Author

Listed:
  • W. Adrián Risso Adrián Risso
  • Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera

Abstract

El objetivo de este estudio es estimar empíricamente las relaciones de largo plazo y los efectos umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México. Se muestra la existencia de tal relación a través de un vector cointegrado entre el crecimiento económico (PIB real) y la tasa de inflación (medido por el Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor), y se encuentra una elasticidad significativamente negativa. Además, la relación causal entre estas dos series es estudiada mediante una prueba más sólida que la de Granger; sin embargo, no encontramos ninguna dirección de causalidad entre las series. Las estimaciones del modelo de valores umbrales sugiere un 9% como el valor umbral (punto de ruptura estructural) entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico, lo cual significa que valores de inflación por encima del umbral tienen un impacto negativo sobre el crecimiento económico en México. Clasificación JEL: E31, O40, O42.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Adrián Risso Adrián Risso & Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera, 2010. "Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 29(2), pages 77-98, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:29:y:2010:i:2:id:83
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos29.2-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ensayos.uanl.mx/index.php/ensayos/article/view/83
    File Function: Abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ensayos.uanl.mx/index.php/ensayos/article/download/83/69
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.29105/ensayos29.2-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Mr. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 1995/056, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Huybens, Elisabeth & Smith, Bruce D., 1998. "Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 353-400, August.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    8. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    11. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    12. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    13. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando, 1999. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 315-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ere:journl:v:xxix:y:2010:i:2:p:77-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    3. Palakiyèm Kpemoua, 2016. "Levels Of Education And Economic Performances Of Togo [Niveaux D’Education Et Performances Economiques Du Togo]," Working Papers halshs-01506650, HAL.
    4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Growth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers vie0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    5. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Groth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers 0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    6. Panagiotis Pegkas & Constantinos Tsamadias, 2017. "Are There Separate Effects of Male and Female Higher Education on Economic Growth? Evidence from Greece," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(1), pages 279-293, March.
    7. Sushil Kumar Haldar, 2009. "Economic Growth in India Revisited," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(1), pages 105-126, January.
    8. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1-17.
    9. David EA Giles, 2005. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 93-114.
    10. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    11. Kaminski, Jermain & Hopp, Christian & Tykvová, Tereza, 2019. "New technology assessment in entrepreneurial financing – Does crowdfunding predict venture capital investments?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 287-302.
    12. Shamim Ahmed & M. Golam Mortaza, 2010. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005," Working Papers id:3033, eSocialSciences.
    13. repec:aer:wpaper:322 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Jungmittag Andre & Untiedt Gerhard, 2002. "Kapitalmobilität in Europa aus empirischer Sicht. Befunde und wirtschaftspolitische Implikationen / Capital Mobility in Europe from an Empirical Viewpoint. Evidence and Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(1), pages 42-63, February.
    16. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(01-2), pages 1-13, March.
    17. Mendy, David & Widodo, Tri, 2018. "On the Inflation-Uncertainty Hypothesis in The Gambia: A Multi-Sample View on Causality Linkages," MPRA Paper 86743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "Trade liberalization and industrial growth in Pakistan: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1421-1429.
    19. Efthymios Tsionas, 2000. "Real convergence in Europe. How robust are econometric inferences?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(11), pages 1475-1482.
    20. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    21. Panagiotis PEGKAS & Constantinos TSAMADIAS, 2015. "Does Formal Education At All Levels Cause Economic Growth? Evidence From Greece," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 15, pages 9-32, June.
    22. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Silgoner, 2014. "Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 843-860, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:29:y:2010:i:2:id:83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Revistas UANL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ensayos.uanl.mx/index.php/ensayos .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.