Una propuesta para evaluar pronósticos de rendimientos de acciones cuando las distribuciones empíricas no son normales estacionarias
This paper deals with the main problems related to predictability of asset returns when data series are not normally stationary distributed. The statistical analysis includes several normality tests on returns series of Banamex-30 stocks first, and then an application of mixture of probability distributions and stochastic processes to series, which are not normal stationary. As a means to avoid the normality assumption when forecasting asset returns, we introduce a second-order Markov model.
Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- Affleck-Graves, John & McDonald, Bill, 1989. " Nonnormalities and Tests of Asset Pricing Theories," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 889-908, September.
- Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March.
- Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J, 1994. "Alternative Models for the Conditional Heteroscedasticity of Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 563-98, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:18:y:2003:i:2:p:237-277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rocío Contreras)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.