Inter-country trade dependence and inflation transmission mechanisms: The case of a small open African economy
Purpose – According to the Central Bank of Cape Verde, price stability is an important aspect when conducting its monetary policy. Given the fixed exchange rate regime towards the Portuguese Escudo/Euro and the high degree of trade inter-dependence, this paper aims to analyse the “inflation import” phenomenon from Portugal to Cape Verde's economy from 1992 to 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes a VECM and Granger causality approach. Findings – The paper finds evidence in favour of the existence of a propagation mechanism, i.e., inflation transmission from Portugal to Cape Verde. The reverse conclusion is not true though. Another interesting implication from the policy-making perspective is that Cape Verde's CPI is affected by non-expected shocks in the short run and it takes, on average, 12 months for an adjustment towards a higher level to take place. Practical implications – So, Portuguese inflation is an important variable to take into account when doing inflation forecasting exercises to Cape Verde's economy as well as when thinking about setting/defining exchange rate regimes. In this context, diversifying trading partners in Cape Verde is highly recommended as a way to reduce and dilute the Portuguese influence (as well as the role of external shocks) in the overall economy and price levels in Cape Verde. Originality/value – The paper applies a well-known economic phenomenon to the relationship between Portugal and one of its former colonies – Cape Verde. The analysis is of use to policy practioneers and to the country's Central Bank.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijdi.htm Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian & Arthur E. Gandolfi & Anna J. Schwartz & Alan C. Stockman, 1983.
"The International Transmission of Inflation,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number darb83-1, July.
- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Rodrigo Fuentes & Federico Sturzenegger, 1993. "Growth issues in developing countries: an overview," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 20(esp Year ), pages 1-18, june.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijdipp:v:9:y:2010:i:3:p:198-213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.