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Exportaciones, inversión y crecimiento económico en Centroamérica

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  • Cáceres, Luis René

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth for the case of Guatemala and El Salvador, emphasizing the quantification of spillover effects. Cointegration vectors are estimated for each country, which include the variables exports, GDP, public investment and private investment. It was found that one cointegration vector exists in each country. Error correction models were estimated including the error term from the other country’s cointegration vector as an indicator of “excess demand”. The cointegration vectors were re-estimated, including in each case the exports variable from the neighbor country. The existence of one cointegration vector was inferred for both countries. The paper concludes stressing that the interdependence of economic variables gives rise to an interdependence of national social policies, and arguing for the convenience of establishing a policy coordination framework on a Central American scale, with view towards utilizing economic interdependece to impart more dynamism to economic growth.// Este trabajo investiga la relación entre exportaciones y crecimiento económico para los casos de Guatemala y El Salvador, destaca la valoración de efectos de desbordamiento económico entre estos dos países. Se estiman vectores de cointegración para cada país, incluyendo las variables exportaciones, PIB e inversión pública y privada y se estimaron los correspondientes modelos de corrección de errores para cada país, inclusive el término de error de vector de cointegración del otro país como una medida de “exceso de demanda”. Se reestimaron los vectores de cointegración, incluyendo junto a las respectivas variables nacionales usadas anteriormente, la variable exportaciones del país vecino y se infiriere la existencia de un vector de cointegración en cada país. Se estimaron modelos de corrección de errores de cada país y se analiza las relaciones de causalidad de Granger entre las distintas variables. El trabajo concluye que la interdependencia económica entre estos países da lugar a una interdependencia de las políticas sociales nacionales, lo que implica la conveniencia de establecer un marco de coordinación de políticas sociales nacionales.

Suggested Citation

  • Cáceres, Luis René, 2007. "Exportaciones, inversión y crecimiento económico en Centroamérica," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(295), pages 719-743, julio-sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:74:y:2007:i:295:p:719-743
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v74i295.400
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    File URL: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/400/446
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic integration; integración económica;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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