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Do Sunspots Reflect Consumer Confidence? An Empirical Investigation

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  • Sharon G. Harrison

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

I examine a model with an indeterminate equilibrium in which business cycles are driven by sunspot shocks. I focus on the possibility that the sunspot shocks reflect consumer confidence. I compute an implied series of sunspot shocks using the intertemporal Euler equation and interpret them as changes in nonfundamental confidence. I then compute a measure of nonfundamental confidence using U.S. data and find a statistically significant correlation between the two series. I therefore conclude that the measured sunspots represent well the behavior of confidence in U.S. data.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharon G. Harrison, 2005. "Do Sunspots Reflect Consumer Confidence? An Empirical Investigation," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 55-73, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:31:y:2005:i:1:p:55-73
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    File URL: http://web.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume31/V31N1P55_73.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 1995. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 165-188, August.
    2. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    3. Bennett, Rosalind L. & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2000. "Indeterminacy with Non-separable Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 118-143, July.
    4. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1995. "Aggregate productivity and the productivity of aggregates," International Finance Discussion Papers 532, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
    2. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttila, Jukka, 2004. "Money, barter, and inflation in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 297-314, June.
    3. Li, Cheng, 2011. "Consumer expectation and output growth: The case of China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 298-300.
    4. Shieh, Jhy-yuan & Chen, Jhy-hwa & Chang, Shu-hua & Lai, Ching-chong, 2014. "Environmental consciousness, economic growth, and macroeconomic instability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 151-160.
    5. António Bento Caleiro, 2021. "Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, September.
    6. Nadenichek, Jon, 2007. "Consumer confidence and economic stagnation in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 338-346, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Cycle; Equilibrium; Sunspot;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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