A Test of Fischer's Theory of Monetary Misperceptions and the Business Cycle in the Presence of Long-Term Contracts
This article uses multi-period ex ante anticipations of money supply growth to estimate the parameters of a model, suggested by Stanley Fischer, in which money affects real variables only through multi-period errors in anticipations. This model is tested against an alternative, first evaluated empirically by Robert Barro, in which money affects real variables only through single period errors in anticipations. The two models are compared using the "P" test procedure for non-nested models suggested by Davidson and MacKinnon. The small sample properties of the test are unknown. Random experiments are performed to approximate these properties. On the basis of estimated small scale distributions, the Fischer model rejects the Barro model at conventional levels, but is not rejected by it.
Volume (Year): 18 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: c/o Dr. Alexandre Olbrecht, The Anisfield School of Business 205, Ramapo College, 505 Ramapo Valley Road, Ramapo, New Jersey 07430, USA|
Phone: (201) 684-7346
Web page: https://www.quinnipiac.edu/eea/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1979.
"Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity,"
NBER Working Papers
0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J, 1977.
"Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
- Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980.
"Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses,"
378, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May.
- Nichols, Donald A & Small, David H & Webster, Charles E, Jr, 1983. "Why Interest Rates Rise When an Unexpectedly Large Money Stock Is Announced," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 383-88, June.
- M. H. Pesaran, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 153-171.
- Carns, Frederick & Lombra, Raymond, 1983. "Rational Expectations and Short-Run Neutrality: A Reexamination of the Role of Anticipated Money Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 639-43, November.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Henning Bohn & Peter C. Reiss, 1985.
"Alternative Nonnested Specification Tests of Time Series Investment Models,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben & Bohn, Henning & Reiss, Peter C., 1988. "Alternative non-nested specification tests of time-series investment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-326, March.
- Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
- Pesaran, M H, 1982. "Comparison of Local Power of Alternative Tests of Non-Nested Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1287-1305, September.
- Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
- Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-44, December.
- Rush, Mark & Waldo, Douglas, 1988. "On the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition and a Keynesian Alternative," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 498-503, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:18:y:1992:i:1:p:99-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.