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A Test of Fischer's Theory of Monetary Misperceptions and the Business Cycle in the Presence of Long-Term Contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Charles W. Bischoff

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

  • Steven C. Hine

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

Abstract

This article uses multi-period ex ante anticipations of money supply growth to estimate the parameters of a model, suggested by Stanley Fischer, in which money affects real variables only through multi-period errors in anticipations. This model is tested against an alternative, first evaluated empirically by Robert Barro, in which money affects real variables only through single period errors in anticipations. The two models are compared using the "P" test procedure for non-nested models suggested by Davidson and MacKinnon. The small sample properties of the test are unknown. Random experiments are performed to approximate these properties. On the basis of estimated small scale distributions, the Fischer model rejects the Barro model at conventional levels, but is not rejected by it.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles W. Bischoff & Steven C. Hine, 1992. "A Test of Fischer's Theory of Monetary Misperceptions and the Business Cycle in the Presence of Long-Term Contracts," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 99-110, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:18:y:1992:i:1:p:99-110
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rush, Mark & Waldo, Douglas, 1988. "On the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition and a Keynesian Alternative," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 498-503, June.
    2. M. H. Pesaran, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 153-171.
    3. Bernanke, Ben & Bohn, Henning & Reiss, Peter C., 1988. "Alternative non-nested specification tests of time-series investment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-326, March.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    5. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters,in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nichols, Donald A & Small, David H & Webster, Charles E, Jr, 1983. "Why Interest Rates Rise When an Unexpectedly Large Money Stock Is Announced," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 383-388, June.
    7. Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
    8. Pesaran, M H, 1982. "Comparison of Local Power of Alternative Tests of Non-Nested Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1287-1305, September.
    9. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
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    11. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    12. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-190, February.
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    14. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Cycle; Monetary; Money; Supply;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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