Default Risk, Interest Differentials and Fiscal Policy: A New Look at Crowding Out
The crowding out debate fails to incorporate the impact of expansionary policy on interest rates for private sector borrowing through changes in perceived default risk. In a modified IS-LM model with default risk dependent on the state of the economy, government borrowing has an indeterminate effect on interest rates for private borrowers; reduced default risk mitigates any crowding out effect. Testing the model with data from 1959-85 verifies a default risk effect for both monetary and fiscal policy. Expansionary policy reduces the spread between Baa corporate bonds and Treasury bonds of equal maturity.
Volume (Year): 15 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (Jul-Sep)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: c/o Dr. Alexandre Olbrecht, The Anisfield School of Business 205, Ramapo College, 505 Ramapo Valley Road, Ramapo, New Jersey 07430, USA|
Phone: (201) 684-7346
Web page: https://www.quinnipiac.edu/eea/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Benson, Earl D & Rogowski, Robert J, 1978. "The Cyclical Behavior of Risk Spreads on New Municipal Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 348-362, August.
- Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordan, 1968. "Monetary and fiscal actions: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 11-23.
- Jaffee, Dwight M., 1975. "Cyclical variations in the risk structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 309-325, July.
- Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1981. "Bankruptcy, Liquidity, and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 155-159, May.
- Cebula, Richard & Carlos, Christopher & Koch, James, 1980.
"The "Crowding Out" Effect of Federal Government Outlay Decisions: An Empirical Note,"
51554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Richard Cebula & Christopher Carlos & James Koch, 1981. "The ‘crowding out’ effect of federal government outlay decisions: An empirical note," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 329-336, January.
- Blinder, Alan S & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1983.
"Money, Credit Constraints, and Economic Activity,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 297-302, May.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
- Dalamagas, Basil A, 1987. "Government Deficits, Crowding Out, and Inflation: Some International Evidence," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 42(1), pages 65-84.
- Cook, Timothy Q & Hendershott, Patric H, 1978. "The Impact of Taxes, Risk and Relative Security Supplies on Interest Rate Differentials," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1186, September.
- Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:15:y:1989:i:3:p:203-212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.