IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v29y2013icp227-235.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Ülengin, Füsun
  • Özaydın, Özay
  • Ülengin, Burç
  • Kopp, Andreas
  • Önsel, Şule
  • Kabak, Özgür
  • Aktaş, Emel

Abstract

In this research, an integrated gravity-based model was built, and a scenario analysis was conducted to project the demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to perform a disaggregated analysis to estimate the demand levels that will occur on the routes which are planned to be improved in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models, the growth rate of Turkey's GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario. Besides, it is assumed that the gross value added (GVA) of the origin and destination regions of the selected routes will show a pattern similar to GDP growth rates. Based on the estimated GDP values, and the projected GVA growth rates, the demand for each selected route was projected and found that the demand level for some of these road projects is expected to be very low, and hence additional measures would be needed to make these investments worthwhile.

Suggested Citation

  • Ülengin, Füsun & Özaydın, Özay & Ülengin, Burç & Kopp, Andreas & Önsel, Şule & Kabak, Özgür & Aktaş, Emel, 2013. "Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 227-235.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:227-235
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.07.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X13000978
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.07.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xiaoyun & Xin, Xian, 2011. "Transportation uncertainty and international trade," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 156-162, January.
    2. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    3. Ülengin, Füsun & Önsel, Sule & Ilker Topçu, Y. & Aktas, Emel & Kabak, Özgür, 2007. "An integrated transportation decision support system for transportation policy decisions: The case of Turkey," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 80-97, January.
    4. Wardman, Mark, 2006. "Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 129-148, May.
    5. Filippini, Carlo & Molini, Vasco, 2003. "The determinants of East Asian trade flows: a gravity equation approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 695-711, October.
    6. Grosche, Tobias & Rothlauf, Franz & Heinzl, Armin, 2007. "Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 175-183.
    7. Marin, Emmanuel, 2003. "Demand forecast, congestion charge and economic benefit of an automated highway network for the paris agglomeration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-120, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duygu Şahan & Okan Tuna, 2021. "Policy Implications on Transport Infrastructure–Trade Dynamics: Case of Turkey," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Piskin, Metin & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Hannum, Christopher M., 2020. "Synergy effects of highway investments on the Turkish economy: An application of an integrated transport network with a multiregional CGE model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 78-92.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Phil Goodwin & Kurt Van Dender, 2013. "'Peak Car' - Themes and Issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 243-254, May.
    3. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    4. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
    5. Souche, Stéphanie, 2009. "Un exemple d’estimation de la demande de transport urbain," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Editions NecPlus, vol. 2009(04), pages 759-779, December.
    6. Longden, Thomas, 2016. "The Regularity and Irregularity of Travel: an Analysis of the Consistency of Travel Times Associated with Subsistence, Maintenance and Discretionary Activities," ET: Economic Theory 243150, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Selima Sultana & Hyojin Kim & Nastaran Pourebrahim & Firoozeh Karimi, 2018. "Geographical Assessment of Low-Carbon Transportation Modes: A Case Study from a Commuter University," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-23, August.
    8. Yves Crozet & Iragaël Joly, 2004. "Travel Time Budgets: Facing the paradoxical management of the "scarcest good" [Budgets temps de transport : les sociétés tertiaires confrontées à la gestion paradoxale du " bien le p," Post-Print halshs-00068933, HAL.
    9. Chen, Jieh-Haur & Wei, Hsi-Hsien & Chen, Chih-Lin & Wei, Hsin-Yi & Chen, Yi-Ping & Ye, Zhongnan, 2020. "A practical approach to determining critical macroeconomic factors in air-traffic volume based on K-means clustering and decision-tree classification," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Santos, Lui­s & Coutinho-Rodrigues, João & Current, John R., 2008. "Implementing a multi-vehicle multi-route spatial decision support system for efficient trash collection in Portugal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 922-934, July.
    11. Gharleghi, Behrooz & Popov, Vladimir, 2018. "Changes in the geographical structure of trade in Central Asia: Real flows in the 1989-2016 period versus gravity model predictions," MPRA Paper 89041, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Humpe, Andreas & Gössling, Stefan & Haustein, Sonja, 2022. "Car careers: A socio-psychological evaluation of aspirational automobile ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 156-166.
    13. Ahern, Aoife A. & Tapley, Nigel, 2008. "The use of stated preference techniques to model modal choices on interurban trips in Ireland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 15-27, January.
    14. Clewlow, Regina R. & Sussman, Joseph M. & Balakrishnan, Hamsa, 2014. "The impact of high-speed rail and low-cost carriers on European air passenger traffic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 136-143.
    15. Evgenie P. Zharikov & Alla A. Kravchenko & Olesya O. Sergeeva & Victor V. Stetsyuk, 2016. "Econometric Estimation of Bilateral Transboundary Trade between Russia and China," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1068-1071.
    16. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    17. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.
    18. Joly, I., 2011. "Test of the relation between travel and activities times : different representations of a demand derived from activity participation," Working Papers 201103, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    19. Śledziewska Katarzyna & Akhvlediani Tinatin, 2017. "What Determines Export Performances in High‑tech Industries," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 1(48), pages 37-49, November.
    20. Maurici Ruiz-Pérez & Joana Maria Seguí-Pons, 2020. "Transport Mode Choice for Residents in a Tourist Destination: The Long Road to Sustainability (the Case of Mallorca, Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-31, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:227-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.