IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v37y2001i1p1-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aviation infrastructure performance and airline cost: a statistical cost estimation approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hansen, Mark M.
  • Gillen, David
  • Djafarian-Tehrani, Reza

Abstract

The relationship between the performance of the US National Airspace System (NAS) and airline costs is examined by estimating airline cost functions that include NAS performance metrics as arguments, using quarterly data for 10 US domestic airlines. Performance metrics that vary by airline and quarter are developed by applying principal component analysis to seven underlying variables, including average delay, delay variance, and the proportion of flights that is cancelled. This analysis reveals that variation in the seven variables can be adequately captured by three or fewer factors, which we term NAS performance factors. If three factors are used, they can be interpretted as "delay", "variability", and "disruption", the latter two of which are merged into a single "irregularity" factor in the two-factor model. Cost function estimation results confirm the anticipated link between NAS performance and airline cost. In the cost models with two and three performance factors, the irregularity and disruption factors are found to have the strongest cost impacts. These results challenge the prevailing assumption that delay reduction is the most important benefit from NAS enhancements. Using the estimated cost models, we predict airline cost savings from substantially improved NAS performance in the range $1-4 billion annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Mark M. & Gillen, David & Djafarian-Tehrani, Reza, 2001. "Aviation infrastructure performance and airline cost: a statistical cost estimation approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-23, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:37:y:2001:i:1:p:1-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554500000089
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yor, Marc, 1993. "From planar Brownian windings to Asian options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 23-34, September.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1991. "Forward Contracts and Firm Value: Investment Incentive and Contracting Effects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, pages 519-532.
    4. Hélyette Geman & Marc Yor, 1993. "Bessel Processes, Asian Options, And Perpetuities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 349-375.
    5. Kemna, A. G. Z. & Vorst, A. C. F., 1990. "A pricing method for options based on average asset values," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 113-129, March.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    7. Steen Koekebakker * & Roar Os Ådland, 2004. "Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 319-335, October.
    8. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. Stulz, ReneM., 1990. "Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-27, July.
    11. Les Clewlow & Chris Strickland, 1999. "Valuing Energy Options in a One Factor Model Fitted to Forward Prices," Research Paper Series 10, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Alziary, Benedicte & Decamps, Jean-Paul & Koehl, Pierre-Francois, 1997. "A P.D.E. approach to Asian options: analytical and numerical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 613-640, May.
    13. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1993. " Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1629-1658, December.
    15. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Amir H. Alizadeh-M, 2002. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure and Risk Premiums in Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Markets," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 267-304, May.
    16. Manolis Kavussanos & Nikos Nomikos, 2003. "Price Discovery, Causality and Forecasting in the Freight Futures Market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-230, October.
    17. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2000. "Futures hedging when the structure of the underlying asset changes: The case of the BIFFEX contract," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 775-801, September.
    18. Jostein Tvedt, 1998. "Valuation of a European futures option in the BIFFEX market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 167-175, April.
    19. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    20. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    21. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2004. "Market interactions in returns and volatilities between spot and forward shipping freight markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 2015-2049, August.
    22. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    23. John Dinwoodie & Jeffrey Morris, 2003. "Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 45-58, January.
    24. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    25. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Nikos K. Nomikos, 1999. "The forward pricing function of the shipping freight futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 353-376, May.
    26. Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz., 1979. "A Continuous-Time Approach to the Pricing of Bonds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 85, University of California at Berkeley.
    27. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Reis, Jorge, 1998. "Valuation of Commodity Futures and Options under Stochastic Convenience Yields, Interest Rates, and Jump Diffusions in the Spot," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(01), pages 61-86, March.
    28. Roar Adland & Kevin Cullinane, 2005. "A Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Term Structure of Bulk Shipping Freight Rates," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 39(2), pages 191-208, May.
    29. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Visvikis, Ilias D. & Batchelor, Roy A., 2004. "Over-the-counter forward contracts and spot price volatility in shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 273-296, July.
    30. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2000. "Constant vs. time-varying hedge ratios and hedging efficiency in the BIFFEX market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 229-248, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ismail, Noor Azina & Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh, 2014. "The influence of firm age on the relationships of airline performance, economic situation and internal operation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 212-224.
    2. Zou, Bo & Hansen, Mark, 2012. "Impact of operational performance on air carrier cost structure: Evidence from US airlines," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1032-1048.
    3. Zou, Bo & Elke, Matthew & Hansen, Mark & Kafle, Nabin, 2014. "Evaluating air carrier fuel efficiency in the US airline industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 306-330.
    4. Romero-Hernandez, Manuel & Salgado, Hugo, 2005. "Economies of Density, Network Size and Spatial Scope in the European Airline Industry," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt9609m6hs, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Dunkerley Fay & Andre de Palma & Proost Stef, 2005. "Asymmetric Duopoly in Space - what policies work?," Energy, Transport and Environment Working Papers Series ete0509, KU Leuven, Department of Economics - Research Group Energy, Transport and Environment.
    6. Goh, Mark & Yong, Jongsay, 2006. "Impacts of code-share alliances on airline cost structure: A truncated third-order translog estimation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 835-866, July.
    7. Ryerson, Megan S., 2010. "Optimal Intercity Transportation Services with Heterogeneous Demand and Variable Fuel Price," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt8696z26t, University of California Transportation Center.
    8. Zuidberg, Joost, 2014. "Identifying airline cost economies: An econometric analysis of the factors affecting aircraft operating costs," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 86-95.
    9. Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi & Peyman Babashamsi & Datis Khajeheian & Nader Seyyed Amiri, 2016. "Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(11), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Zou, Bo & Hansen, Mark, 2014. "Flight delay impact on airfare and flight frequency: A comprehensive assessment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-74.
    11. Birisci, Esma & McGarvey, Ronald G., 2016. "Inferring shortfall costs and integrating environmental costs into optimal production levels for an all-you-care-to-eat food service operation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 157-164.
    12. Zou, Bo & Hansen, Mark, 2012. "Flight delays, capacity investment and social welfare under air transport supply-demand equilibrium," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 965-980.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:37:y:2001:i:1:p:1-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.