Understanding agricultural supply chain resilience in developing countries: A Short-Chain framework

Given the multiple challenges posed by climate shocks, food security pressures, and systemic disruptions, building resilient agricultural supply chains (ASCs) has become a critical priority. This need is particularly urgent in developing countries, as ASCs in these contexts are typically fragmented and weakly integrated. To address this, we propose a “Short-Chain” framework aimed at advancing differentiated resilience approaches. Drawing on survey data from 627 Chinese ASC firms, we construct two analytical scenarios and evaluate them using machine learning methods. The results indicate that, due to loose connections among the production, processing, and marketing stages, ASCs function as systems composed of several semi-independent sub-chains. These sub-chains exhibit differing resilience requirements, making segment-specific resilience approaches necessary. This study introduces a new perspective for analyzing ASC resilience in developing countries, therefore offers theoretical guidance for managers in designing tailored resilience strategies.