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Empirical analysis of bus transit on-time performance

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  • Strathman, James G.
  • Hopper, Janet R.

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical assessment of factors affecting on-time performance in Portland, Oregon's fixed route bus system. A multinomial logit model relating early, late and on-time bus arrivals to route, schedule, driver and operating characteristics is developed and estimated. The model results show that the probability of on-time failures increases during PM peak periods, with longer headways and higher levels of passenger activity, and as buses progress further along their routes. Part-time drivers are also more likely to fall behind schedule. With few exceptions, schedule changes and operations-control actions can mitigate these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Strathman, James G. & Hopper, Janet R., 1993. "Empirical analysis of bus transit on-time performance," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 93-100, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:27:y:1993:i:2:p:93-100
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    Cited by:

    1. Chakrabarti, Sandip & Giuliano, Genevieve, 2015. "Does service reliability determine transit patronage? Insights from the Los Angeles Metro bus system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 12-20.
    2. Sun, Lijun & Tirachini, Alejandro & Axhausen, Kay W. & Erath, Alexander & Lee, Der-Horng, 2014. "Models of bus boarding and alighting dynamics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 447-460.
    3. Dessouky, Maged & Hall, Randolph & Zhang, Lei & Singh, Ajay, 2003. "Real-time control of buses for schedule coordination at a terminal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 145-164, February.
    4. Hall, Randolph & Dessouky, Maged & Zhang, Lei & Singh, Ajay & Patel, Vishal, 1999. "Evaluation of ITS Technology for Bus Transit Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2nq1824t, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Durán-Hormazábal, Elsa & Tirachini, Alejandro, 2016. "Estimation of travel time variability for cars, buses, metro and door-to-door public transport trips in Santiago, Chile," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 26-39.
    6. Chen, Mei & Liu, Xiaobo, 2005. "Using a Neural Network to Analyze the Impact of Passenger Activity on Bus Dwell Time and Travel Time," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(3).
    7. repec:eee:transa:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:13-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wu, Weitiao & Liu, Ronghui & Jin, Wenzhou, 2016. "Designing robust schedule coordination scheme for transit networks with safety control margins," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 495-519.
    9. Tétreault, Paul R. & El-Geneidy, Ahmed M., 2010. "Estimating bus run times for new limited-stop service using archived AVL and APC data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 390-402, July.
    10. Hall, Randolph & Dessouky, Maged & Nowroozi, Ali & Singh, A., 1997. "Evaluation Of ITS Technology For Bus Timed Transfers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1wq2v1p4, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    11. Chen, Xumei & Yu, Lei & Zhang, Yushi & Guo, Jifu, 2009. "Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 722-734, October.
    12. Alejandro Tirachini & David Hensher & Michiel Bliemer, 2014. "Accounting for travel time variability in the optimal pricing of cars and buses," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 947-971, September.
    13. Yu, Bin & Yang, Zhongzhen & Li, Shan, 2012. "Real-time partway deadheading strategy based on transit service reliability assessment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1265-1279.
    14. Tisato, Peter, 1998. "Service unreliability and bus subsidy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 423-436, August.
    15. Pilachowski, Joshua Michael, 2009. "An Approach to Reducing Bus Bunching," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6zc5j8xg, University of California Transportation Center.
    16. Salicrú, M. & Fleurent, C. & Armengol, J.M., 2011. "Timetable-based operation in urban transport: Run-time optimisation and improvements in the operating process," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 721-740, October.

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