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Empirical analysis of bus transit on-time performance

Author

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  • Strathman, James G.
  • Hopper, Janet R.

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical assessment of factors affecting on-time performance in Portland, Oregon's fixed route bus system. A multinomial logit model relating early, late and on-time bus arrivals to route, schedule, driver and operating characteristics is developed and estimated. The model results show that the probability of on-time failures increases during PM peak periods, with longer headways and higher levels of passenger activity, and as buses progress further along their routes. Part-time drivers are also more likely to fall behind schedule. With few exceptions, schedule changes and operations-control actions can mitigate these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Strathman, James G. & Hopper, Janet R., 1993. "Empirical analysis of bus transit on-time performance," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 93-100, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:27:y:1993:i:2:p:93-100
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    Cited by:

    1. Chakrabarti, Sandip & Giuliano, Genevieve, 2015. "Does service reliability determine transit patronage? Insights from the Los Angeles Metro bus system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 12-20.
    2. Hall, Randolph & Dessouky, Maged & Zhang, Lei & Singh, Ajay & Patel, Vishal, 1999. "Evaluation of ITS Technology for Bus Transit Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2nq1824t, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    3. Durán-Hormazábal, Elsa & Tirachini, Alejandro, 2016. "Estimation of travel time variability for cars, buses, metro and door-to-door public transport trips in Santiago, Chile," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 26-39.
    4. Tétreault, Paul R. & El-Geneidy, Ahmed M., 2010. "Estimating bus run times for new limited-stop service using archived AVL and APC data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 390-402, July.
    5. Tisato, Peter, 1998. "Service unreliability and bus subsidy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 423-436, August.
    6. Pilachowski, Joshua Michael, 2009. "An Approach to Reducing Bus Bunching," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6zc5j8xg, University of California Transportation Center.
    7. Klumpenhouwer, W. & Wirasinghe, S.C., 2018. "Optimal time point configuration of a bus route - A Markovian approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PA), pages 209-227.
    8. Zhang Xiaoliang & Jia Limin, 2021. "Analysis of Bus Line Operation Reliability Based on Copula Function," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-15, July.
    9. Sun, Lijun & Tirachini, Alejandro & Axhausen, Kay W. & Erath, Alexander & Lee, Der-Horng, 2014. "Models of bus boarding and alighting dynamics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 447-460.
    10. Dessouky, Maged & Hall, Randolph & Zhang, Lei & Singh, Ajay, 2003. "Real-time control of buses for schedule coordination at a terminal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 145-164, February.
    11. W. Klumpenhouwer & S. C. Wirasinghe, 2016. "Cost-of-crowding model for light rail train and platform length," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 85-101, March.
    12. Martínez-Estupiñan, Yerly & Delgado, Felipe & Muñoz, Juan Carlos & Watkins, Kari E., 2023. "Improving the performance of headway control tools by using individual driving speed data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    13. Chakrabarti, Sandip, 2015. "The demand for reliable transit service: New evidence using stop level data from the Los Angeles Metro bus system," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 154-164.
    14. Chen, Mei & Liu, Xiaobo, 2005. "Using a Neural Network to Analyze the Impact of Passenger Activity on Bus Dwell Time and Travel Time," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(3).
    15. Dessouky, Maged & Singh, Ajay & Hall, Randolph, 1997. "Transit ITS Simulator (TRANSITS): Design Document," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt49k184rv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    16. Ji, Yanjie & Gao, Liangpeng & Chen, Dandan & Ma, Xinwei & Zhang, Ruochen, 2018. "How does a static measure influence passengers’ boarding behaviors and bus dwell time? Simulated evidence from Nanjing bus stations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 13-25.
    17. Wu, Weitiao & Liu, Ronghui & Jin, Wenzhou, 2016. "Designing robust schedule coordination scheme for transit networks with safety control margins," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 495-519.
    18. Hall, Randolph & Dessouky, Maged & Nowroozi, Ali & Singh, A., 1997. "Evaluation Of ITS Technology For Bus Timed Transfers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1wq2v1p4, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    19. Chen, Xumei & Yu, Lei & Zhang, Yushi & Guo, Jifu, 2009. "Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 722-734, October.
    20. Alejandro Tirachini & David Hensher & Michiel Bliemer, 2014. "Accounting for travel time variability in the optimal pricing of cars and buses," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 947-971, September.
    21. Yu, Bin & Yang, Zhongzhen & Li, Shan, 2012. "Real-time partway deadheading strategy based on transit service reliability assessment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1265-1279.
    22. Mohammad-Reza Namazi-Rad & Michelle Dunbar & Hadi Ghaderi & Payam Mokhtarian, 2015. "Constrained Optimization of Average Arrival Time via a Probabilistic Approach to Transport Reliability," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    23. Salicrú, M. & Fleurent, C. & Armengol, J.M., 2011. "Timetable-based operation in urban transport: Run-time optimisation and improvements in the operating process," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 721-740, October.
    24. Deepa, L. & Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof & Nirmale, Sangram Krishna & Biswas, Mehek & Srinivasan, Karthik K., 2023. "The adverse impact of headway variability on bus transit ridership: Evidence from Bengaluru, India," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 343-356.

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