IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/touman/v50y2015icp73-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index

Author

Listed:
  • Olya, Hossein G.T.
  • Alipour, Habib

Abstract

This study proposes a mathematical approach to a risk analysis of potential changes in the tourism climate nexus. The Information Diffusion Model (IDM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) were applied to the spatial risk analysis of excessive rainfall based on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for North Cyprus. The probability of excessive rainfall was calculated using the IDM. The data were then inserted into the TCI formula to estimate the risk analysis of tourism climate for each station on the island. The spatial pattern of climate-related risks to tourism prepared using geo-statistical techniques with GIS software, revealed that the northern borders of the island are exposed to a high levels of precipitation, with resulting adverse effects on tourism. Risk assessments of the tourism climate, spatial–temporal analyses using the TCI, and climate insurance are suggested as adaptive strategies to address seasonality issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Olya, Hossein G.T. & Alipour, Habib, 2015. "Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 73-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:73-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2015.01.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517715000138
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.01.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeuring, Jelmer & Becken, Susanne, 2013. "Tourists and severe weather – An exploration of the role of ‘Locus of Responsibility’ in protective behaviour decisions," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 193-202.
    2. Amelung, Bas & Nicholls, Sarah, 2014. "Implications of climate change for tourism in Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 228-244.
    3. Jean-Paul Ceron & Ghislain Dubois, 2006. "Tourism and Climate Change: Proposals for a Research Agenda," Post-Print hal-00488282, HAL.
    4. Bas Amelung & Alvaro Moreno, 2009. "Impacts of climate change in tourism in Europe. PESETA-Tourism study," JRC Research Reports JRC55392, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Baoyin Liu & Yim Siu & Gordon Mitchell & Wei Xu, 2013. "Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 2039-2055, December.
    6. L. Feng & C. Huang, 2008. "A Risk Assessment Model of Water Shortage Based on Information Diffusion Technology and its Application in Analyzing Carrying Capacity of Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 621-633, May.
    7. Hao, Lu & Yang, Li-Zhe & Gao, Jing-Min, 2014. "The application of information diffusion technique in probabilistic analysis to grassland biological disasters risk," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 264-270.
    8. Førland, Eirik J. & Steen Jacobsen, Jens Kr. & Denstadli, Jon Martin & Lohmann, Martin & Hanssen-Bauer, Inger & Hygen, Hans Olav & Tømmervik, Hans, 2013. "Cool weather tourism under global warming: Comparing Arctic summer tourists' weather preferences with regional climate statistics and projections," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 567-579.
    9. Ridderstaat, Jorge & Oduber, Marck & Croes, Robertico & Nijkamp, Peter & Martens, Pim, 2014. "Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 245-256.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sara Dalir & Abror Mahamadaminov & Hossein GT Olya, 2021. "Airbnb and taxation: Developing a seasonal tax system," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, March.
    2. Olya, Hossein G.T. & Altinay, Levent, 2016. "Asymmetric modeling of intention to purchase tourism weather insurance and loyalty," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(8), pages 2791-2800.
    3. Laila Shahzad & Ajwa Tahir & Maryam Dogar & Salar Saeed, 2021. "A metric-based assessment of climate and tourism in major cities of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13607-13627, September.
    4. Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi & Mohammad Reza Najafi & Harsimrenjit Singh & Markus Schnorbus, 2021. "Spatial and temporal changes in climate extremes over northwestern North America: the influence of internal climate variability and external forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Ling-en Wang & Yuxi Zeng & Linsheng Zhong, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on Tourism on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Research Based on a Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laila Shahzad & Ajwa Tahir & Maryam Dogar & Salar Saeed, 2021. "A metric-based assessment of climate and tourism in major cities of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13607-13627, September.
    2. Rahman, Arifur & Crouch, Geoffrey I. & Laing, Jennifer H., 2018. "Tourists' temporal booking decisions: A study of the effect of contextual framing," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 55-68.
    3. N. Zhang & H. Huang, 2018. "Assessment of world disaster severity processed by Gaussian blur based on large historical data: casualties as an evaluating indicator," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 173-187, May.
    4. Yanlong Guo & Jiaying Yu & Han Zhang & Zuoqing Jiang, 2022. "A Study on Cultural Context Perception in Huizhou Cultural and Ecological Reserve Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Ghislain Dubois & Jean-Paul Ceron & Stefan Gössling & C. Michael Hall, 2016. "Weather preferences of French tourists: lessons for climate change impact assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 339-351, May.
    6. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    7. Kaveh Madani & Miguel Mariño, 2009. "System Dynamics Analysis for Managing Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(11), pages 2163-2187, September.
    8. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2012. "Climate Change, Tourism and Water Resources in the Mediterranean:a General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2012_05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    9. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    10. Salvador Barrios & Juan Nicolas Ibañez Rivas, 2013. "Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for EU regions," JRC Research Reports JRC80898, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2018. "Revisiting the Balassa–Samuelson effect: International tourism and cultural proximity," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 915-944, December.
    12. Yansong Zhang & Yujie Wei & Yu Mao, 2023. "Sustainability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in China Based on DPSIR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Jakub Żywiec & Dawid Szpak & Izabela Piegdoń & Krzysztof Boryczko & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Janusz Rak, 2023. "An Approach to Assess the Water Resources Reliability and Its Management," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Horng, Jeou-Shyan & Hu, Meng-Lei (Monica) & Teng, Chih-Ching (Chris) & Hsiao, Han-Liang & Liu, Chih-Hsing (Sam), 2013. "Development and validation of the low-carbon literacy scale among practitioners in the Taiwanese tourism industry," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 255-262.
    15. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, 2020. "Relationship between ICT and international tourism demand: A study of major tourist destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(6), pages 908-925, September.
    16. Cernat, Lucian & Onguglo, Bonapas, 2008. "RTAs and WTO Compatibility: Catch Me If You Can? The Case of EPA Negotiations," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 489-517.
    17. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    18. Thomas A. Tsalis & Ioannis E. Nikolaou, 2017. "Assessing the Effects of Climate Change Regulations on the Business Community: A System Dynamic Approach," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 826-843, September.
    19. Taher Safarrad & Mostafa Ghadami & Andreas Dittmann & Mousa Pazhuhan (Panahandeh Khah), 2021. "Tourism Effect on the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Surface Temperature (LST): Babolsar and Fereydonkenar Cities (Cases Study in Iran)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.
    20. Yu Xiaobing & Li Chenliang & Huo Tongzhao & Ji Zhonghui, 2021. "Information diffusion theory-based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2337-2362, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:73-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/tourism-management .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.