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Cool weather tourism under global warming: Comparing Arctic summer tourists' weather preferences with regional climate statistics and projections

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  • Førland, Eirik J.
  • Steen Jacobsen, Jens Kr.
  • Denstadli, Jon Martin
  • Lohmann, Martin
  • Hanssen-Bauer, Inger
  • Hygen, Hans Olav
  • Tømmervik, Hans

Abstract

This article uniquely compares tourists' weather preferences, aversions and acceptances with present and projected future summer weather in Northern Scandinavia. An in situ survey revealed tourist weather preferences (e.g. clear sky, rather warm) and aversions (e.g. frequent rainfall, low visibility). Weather observations and tailored climate projections depict present and future conditions of ‘wet’, ‘cool’, ‘mild’ and ‘warm’ days, and empirical relationships are developed to establish projections for cloudiness and visibility. The projections indicate that tourists' preference for rather warm weather will be met by increasing numbers of mild and warm days. However, the number of ‘wet’ days will increase and prospects for enjoying ‘midnight sun’ tend to be slightly reduced. The study offers a novel approach for better understanding the base of future tourist behaviour under climate change conditions and vital implications for tourism management are identified. Furthermore, advantageous interrelations between different scientific areas for climate change research are illustrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Førland, Eirik J. & Steen Jacobsen, Jens Kr. & Denstadli, Jon Martin & Lohmann, Martin & Hanssen-Bauer, Inger & Hygen, Hans Olav & Tømmervik, Hans, 2013. "Cool weather tourism under global warming: Comparing Arctic summer tourists' weather preferences with regional climate statistics and projections," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 567-579.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:567-579
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.09.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Campos-Soria, Juan A., 2010. "Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 744-753.
    2. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghislain Dubois & Jean-Paul Ceron & Stefan Gössling & C. Michael Hall, 2016. "Weather preferences of French tourists: lessons for climate change impact assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 339-351, May.
    2. Yutao Huang & Xuezhen Zhang & Dan Zhang & Lijuan Zhang & Wenshuai Zhang & Chong Ren & Tao Pan & Zheng Chu & Yuying Chen, 2021. "Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Arctic Summer Climate Comfort Level in the Context of Regional Tourism Resources from 1979 to 2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Shani, Amir & Arad, Boaz, 2014. "Climate change and tourism: Time for environmental skepticism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 82-85.
    4. Olya, Hossein G.T. & Alipour, Habib, 2015. "Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 73-80.
    5. Rahman, Arifur & Crouch, Geoffrey I. & Laing, Jennifer H., 2018. "Tourists' temporal booking decisions: A study of the effect of contextual framing," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 55-68.

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