IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v87y2014icp205-223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenarios for the second generation ethanol in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Raele, Ricardo
  • Boaventura, João Mauricio Gama
  • Fischmann, Adalberto Américo
  • Sarturi, Greici

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to build scenarios for the ethanol industry in Brazil, considering the technology of the second generation ethanol. The theoretical framework draws on the field of studies of the future, scenario construction methods and concepts of stakeholder analysis. The method for constructing the scenarios employs techniques of environmental analysis, stakeholder analysis and consulting with experts. The variables “Creating subsidies for consolidation of second generation ethanol” and “Price of oil” formed the axes of the scenarios. Four scenarios were developed based on the contrast of the variables and on checking their internal consistency, as follows: “Cellulosic integration,” where the second generation ethanol is the world fuel; “Bioelectrical world” with no investments on the production of second generation ethanol, “Fossil World” that shows the decline of the ethanol market, and “Apocalypse,” which features an energy crisis. For each scenario, the respective plots and logic diagrams are presented. This paper presents two types of contributions: the first are the scenarios that can be used in the development of public policy and as a tool for decision makers working in the energy sector, the second contribution is to the knowledge of future studies to provide an orderly construction of scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Raele, Ricardo & Boaventura, João Mauricio Gama & Fischmann, Adalberto Américo & Sarturi, Greici, 2014. "Scenarios for the second generation ethanol in Brazil," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 205-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:87:y:2014:i:c:p:205-223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251300317X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puppim de Oliveira, J. A., 2002. "The policymaking process for creating competitive assets for the use of biomass energy: the Brazilian alcohol programme," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 129-140.
    2. La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre & Pereira, André Santos & Simões, André Felipe, 2011. "Biofuels and Sustainable Energy Development in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1026-1036, June.
    3. Ho, Cheng-Yu & Chang, Jui-Jen & Lee, Shih-Chi & Chin, Tsu-Yuan & Shih, Ming-Che & Li, Wen-Hsiung & Huang, Chieh-Chen, 2012. "Development of cellulosic ethanol production process via co-culturing of artificial cellulosomal Bacillus and kefir yeast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 27-32.
    4. Zheng, Yi & Yu, Chaowei & Cheng, Yu-Shen & Lee, Christopher & Simmons, Christopher W. & Dooley, Todd M. & Zhang, Ruihong & Jenkins, Bryan M. & VanderGheynst, Jean S., 2012. "Integrating sugar beet pulp storage, hydrolysis and fermentation for fuel ethanol production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 168-175.
    5. Rico, Julieta A. Puerto & Mercedes, Sonia S.P. & Sauer, Ildo L., 2010. "Genesis and consolidation of the Brazilian bioethanol: A review of policies and incentive mechanisms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(7), pages 1874-1887, September.
    6. Méjean, Aurélie & Hope, Chris, 2010. "Modelling the costs of energy crops: A case study of US corn and Brazilian sugar cane," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 547-561, January.
    7. Balat, Mustafa & Balat, Havva, 2009. "Recent trends in global production and utilization of bio-ethanol fuel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(11), pages 2273-2282, November.
    8. Moreira, Jose R. & Goldemberg, Jose, 1999. "The alcohol program," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 229-245, April.
    9. Margherita Pagani, 2009. "Roadmapping 3G mobile TV : Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling," Post-Print hal-02313094, HAL.
    10. Philippe Durance & Michel Godet, 2010. "Scenario building: Uses and abuses," Post-Print hal-02864615, HAL.
    11. Goldemberg, José & Coelho, Suani Teixeira & Guardabassi, Patricia, 2008. "The sustainability of ethanol production from sugarcane," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2086-2097, June.
    12. Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Andre Santos Pereira & Andre Felipe Simoes, 2011. "Biofuels and Sustainable Energy Development in Brazil," Post-Print hal-00715546, HAL.
    13. Cerqueira Leite, Rogério Cezar de & Verde Leal, Manoel Regis Lima & Barbosa Cortez, Luís Augusto & Griffin, W. Michael & Gaya Scandiffio, Mirna Ivonne, 2009. "Can Brazil replace 5% of the 2025 gasoline world demand with ethanol?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 655-661.
    14. Warth, Johannes & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2013. "A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 566-583.
    15. Compeán, Roberto Guerrero & Polenske, Karen R., 2011. "Antagonistic bioenergies: Technological divergence of the ethanol industry in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6951-6961.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pazuch, Felix Augusto & Nogueira, Carlos Eduardo Camargo & Souza, Samuel Nelson Melegari & Micuanski, Viviane Cavaler & Friedrich, Leandro & Lenz, Anderson Miguel, 2017. "Economic evaluation of the replacement of sugar cane bagasse by vinasse, as a source of energy in a power plant in the state of Paraná, Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 34-42.
    2. Hans Christian Gils & Sonja Simon & Rafael Soria, 2017. "100% Renewable Energy Supply for Brazil—The Role of Sector Coupling and Regional Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Menezes, Esther & Maia, Alexandre Gori & de Carvalho, Cristiane Silva, 2017. "Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 226-241.
    4. Sonja Simon & Tobias Naegler & Hans Christian Gils, 2018. "Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mercure, J.-F. & Paim, M.A. & Bocquillon, P. & Lindner, S. & Salas, P. & Martinelli, P. & Berchin, I.I. & de Andrade Guerra, J.B.S.O & Derani, C. & de Albuquerque Junior, C.L. & Ribeiro, J.M.P. & Knob, 2019. "System complexity and policy integration challenges: The Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 230-243.
    2. Gabisa, Elias W. & Gheewala, Shabbir H., 2020. "Can substitution of imported gasoline by locally produced molasses ethanol in Ethiopia be sustainable? An eco-efficiency assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Stattman, Sarah L. & Hospes, Otto & Mol, Arthur P.J., 2013. "Governing biofuels in Brazil: A comparison of ethanol and biodiesel policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 22-30.
    4. Alonso-Pippo, Walfrido & Luengo, Carlos A. & Alonsoamador Morales Alberteris, Lidice & García del Pino, Gilberto & Duvoisin, Sergio, 2013. "Practical implementation of liquid biofuels: The transferability of the Brazilian experiences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 70-80.
    5. Laurini, Márcio Poletti, 2017. "The spatio-temporal dynamics of ethanol/gasoline price ratio in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Monteiro de Carvalho, Carolina & Silveira, Semida & Rovere, Emilio Lèbre La & Iwama, Allan Yu, 2015. "Deforested and degraded land available for the expansion of palm oil for biodiesel in the state of Pará in the Brazilian Amazon," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 867-876.
    7. Castro, P. & Pedroso, R. & Lautenbach, S. & Vicens, R., 2020. "Farmland abandonment in Rio de Janeiro: Underlying and contributory causes of an announced development," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Paola Perez-Aleman & Flavia Chaves Alves, 2017. "Reinventing industrial policy at the frontier: catalysing learning and innovation in Brazil," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(1), pages 151-171.
    9. Brito, Thiago Luis Felipe & Islam, Towhidul & Stettler, Marc & Mouette, Dominique & Meade, Nigel & Moutinho dos Santos, Edmilson, 2019. "Transitions between technological generations of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Katia A. Figueroa-Rodríguez & Francisco Hernández-Rosas & Benjamín Figueroa-Sandoval & Joel Velasco-Velasco & Noé Aguilar Rivera, 2019. "What Has Been the Focus of Sugarcane Research? A Bibliometric Overview," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-15, September.
    11. Souza, Simone Pereira & Nogueira, Luiz Augusto Horta & Martinez, Johan & Cortez, Luis Augusto Barbosa, 2018. "Sugarcane can afford a cleaner energy profile in Latin America & Caribbean," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 164-172.
    12. Schneider, Uwe A. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2005. "Implications of a Carbon-Based Energy Tax for U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 265-279, October.
    13. Dodić, Jelena M. & Vučurović, Damjan G. & Dodić, Siniša N. & Grahovac, Jovana A. & Popov, Stevan D. & Nedeljković, Nataša M., 2012. "Kinetic modelling of batch ethanol production from sugar beet raw juice," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 192-197.
    14. Crago, Christine L. & Khanna, Madhu & Barton, Jason & Giuliani, Eduardo & Amaral, Weber, 2010. "Competitiveness of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol compared to US corn ethanol," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7404-7415, November.
    15. Paola Sakai & Stavros Afionis & Nicola Favretto & Lindsay C. Stringer & Caroline Ward & Marco Sakai & Pedro Henrique Weirich Neto & Carlos Hugo Rocha & Jaime Alberti Gomes & Nátali Maidl de Souza & No, 2020. "Understanding the Implications of Alternative Bioenergy Crops to Support Smallholder Farmers in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, March.
    16. Varrone, C. & Liberatore, R. & Crescenzi, T. & Izzo, G. & Wang, A., 2013. "The valorization of glycerol: Economic assessment of an innovative process for the bioconversion of crude glycerol into ethanol and hydrogen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 349-357.
    17. César, Aldara da Silva & Batalha, Mário Otávio & Zopelari, André Luiz Miranda Silva, 2013. "Oil palm biodiesel: Brazil's main challenges," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 485-491.
    18. Sonja Simon & Tobias Naegler & Hans Christian Gils, 2018. "Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, April.
    19. Reymond, Mathias, 2012. "Measuring vulnerability to shocks in the gas market in South America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 754-761.
    20. Santos, Omar Inacio Benedetti & Rathmann, Regis, 2009. "Identification and analysis of local and regional impacts from the introduction of biodiesel production in the state of Piauí," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4011-4020, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:87:y:2014:i:c:p:205-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.