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Rethinking transitions through dual-regime dynamics: The emergence of the flying car sector in China

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  • Tsou, Cheng-ting

Abstract

This study investigates how emerging niches are shaped by interactions between multiple sectoral regimes, using China's flying car industry as a case of cross-regime co-construction. Drawing on the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) concept, the paper develops a dual-regime framework to analyze how aviation and automotive regimes jointly influence niche formation through five institutional dimensions: infrastructure, regulatory systems, institutional logics, actor networks, and market expectations. A Gioia-informed analysis of policy documents, industry and media reports, complemented by expert validation, shows that strong state coordination promotes discursive legitimation and pilot projects, while fragmented infrastructures and regulatory misalignment hinder stabilization and scaling. In addition, the analysis shows that limited public trust, unfamiliar user practices, and unclear use cases constrain societal embedding, a critical but often underappreciated factor in state-led transitions. The study also highlights how capability accumulation and niche dynamics of expectations, networks, and learning interact with dual-regime misalignment. By conceptualizing transitions not as regime substitution but as selective institutional alignment, the study offers a more nuanced understanding of how hybrid innovations evolve under fragmented governance structures. Implications for innovation governance, technology foresight, and the long-term legitimacy of socio-technical systems are discussed, particularly in contexts of cross-sector coordination and institutional complexity.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsou, Cheng-ting, 2026. "Rethinking transitions through dual-regime dynamics: The emergence of the flying car sector in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:223:y:2026:i:c:s0040162525004664
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124435
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