How does export increase the provincial carbon inequality in China? A study based on interregional networks and cross-sector transfer patterns

Evidence shows that exports not only drive the flow of carbon emissions among different provinces in China, but also affect the distribution of interregional value-added, thus leading to regional carbon inequality. However, the mechanisms through which exports increase carbon inequality remain unseen. This paper constructs a carbon emission–value-added imbalance (CVI) index to evaluate the interregional carbon inequality induced by exports. It traces the key transfer pathways of emissions/value-added based on regional-industrial linkages. The results show that: (1) From the national perspective, China’s exports have exacerbated regional carbon inequality, particularly between the East/South coastal regions and the Northwest regions, with the latter accepting larger outsourced carbon emissions while gaining less value-added from the former. (2) From the provincial perspective, Ningxia exhibited the most pronounced export-induced carbon inequality during the study period. Guangdong outsourced the largest volume of carbon emissions for its export activities, whereas Hebei and Inner Mongolia received the largest scale of carbon emission transfers in 2012 and 2017, respectively. (3) From the sectoral perspective, the export activities of mechanical equipment triggered the most severe inter-provincial carbon inequality. The top 1 direct carbon transfer pathway is: Mechanical equipment sector (Guangdong) → Electricity generation sector (Inner Mongolia), and the indirect carbon transfer pathway is: Mechanical equipment sector (Guangdong) →Mechanical equipment sector (Ningxia) →Electricity generation sector (Inner Mongolia). Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening green technology transfer between coastal and inland regions, optimizing carbon emission mechanisms for sharing responsibility, and introducing a carbon trading system that accounts for both direct and indirect emissions, thereby mitigating export-induced carbon inequality.