On the particle approximation of lagged Feynman–Kac formulae

In this paper we examine the numerical approximation of the limiting invariant measure associated with Feynman–Kac formulae. These are expressed in a discrete time formulation and are associated with a Markov chain and a potential function. The typical application considered here is the computation of eigenvalues associated with non-negative operators as found, for example, in physics or particle simulation of rare-events. We focus on a novel lagged approximation of this invariant measure, based upon the introduction of a ratio of time-averaged Feynman–Kac marginals associated with a positive operator iterated l∈N times; a lagged Feynman–Kac formula. This estimator and its approximation using Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) are commonly used in the physics literature. In short, DMC is an iterative algorithm involving N∈N particles or walkers simulated in parallel, that undergo sampling and resampling operations. In this work, it is shown that for the DMC approximation of the lagged Feynman–Kac formula, one has an almost sure characterization of the L1-error as the time parameter (iteration) goes to infinity and this is at most of O(exp{−κl}/N), for κ>0. In addition a non-asymptotic in time, and time uniform L1−bound is proved which is O(l/N). We also prove a novel central limit theorem to give a characterization of the exact asymptotic in time variance. This analysis demonstrates that the strategy used in physics, namely, to run DMC with N and l small and, for long time enough, is mathematically justified. Our results also suggest how one should choose N and l in practice. We emphasize that these results are not restricted to physical applications; they have broad relevance to the general problem of particle simulation of the Feynman–Kac formula, which is utilized in a great variety of scientific and engineering fields.