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The influence of the Chinese zodiac on fertility in Hong Kong SAR

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  • Yip, Paul S. F.
  • Lee, Joseph
  • Cheung, Y. B.

Abstract

The annual total of births in Hong Kong SAR fell substantially in the past 20 years; hence the total fertility rate (TFR) followed the downward trend and dropped to a low of 0.9 below replacement level in 2000. Despite the long-term downward trend, short-run increases in the annual total of births and the TFR were exhibited. Such temporary fertility increases are identified in the Dragon Years of 1988 and 2000. The phenomenon of fertility changes associated with zodiacal animal years is examined in this paper with a view to gaining some insight into whether Chinese cultural preferences and folklore beliefs might have influenced prospective parents' reproductive behaviour. The paper explains the underlying philosophy of the Chinese astrological tradition and discusses how zodiacal preferences affect fertility between 1976 and 2000. The paper also explores why zodiacal influences on Chinese fertility before 1976 did not exist. It is unquestionable that the Dragon Year preference exerts an influence on fertility of modern Chinese populations through zodiacal birth-timing motivations. Birth rate rise in the Dragon Year is due to changes in timing of births that will have little effect on cumulative fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Yip, Paul S. F. & Lee, Joseph & Cheung, Y. B., 2002. "The influence of the Chinese zodiac on fertility in Hong Kong SAR," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 55(10), pages 1803-1812, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:55:y:2002:i:10:p:1803-1812
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kuang-Ta Lo, 2012. "The Crowding-out Effect of Homeownership on Fertility," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 108-117, March.
    2. Naci H. Mocan & Han Yu, 2017. "Can Superstition Create a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? School Outcomes of Dragon Children of China," NBER Working Papers 23709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cheung, Chau-kiu, 2009. "Evaluating the benefit from the help of the parent-teacher association to child performance," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 247-256, August.
    4. Invernizzi, Giovanna M. & Miller, Joshua B. & Coen, Tommaso & Dufwenberg, Martin & Oliveira, Luiz Edgard R., 2021. "Tra i Leoni: Revealing the preferences behind a superstition," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Andy L. Chou, 2022. "Fortunes and misfortunes of the dragon sons: Direct and cohort effects of superstition on education attainment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 564-579, November.
    6. Yan Lau, 2019. "The dragon cohort of Hong Kong: traditional beliefs, demographics, and education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 219-246, January.
    7. Cheng Huang & Xiaojing Ma & Shiying Zhang & Qingguo Zhao, 2020. "Numerological preferences, timing of births and the long-term effect on schooling," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 531-554, April.
    8. Huang, Cheng & Zhang, Shiying & Zhao, Qingguo & Lin, Yan, 2021. "Dragon year superstition, birth timing, and neonatal health outcomes," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Bhattacharya, Haimanti & Dugar, Subhasish, 2022. "Business norm versus norm-nudge as a contract-enforcing mechanism: Evidence from a real marketplace," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Hsu, Kuang-Hung & Liao, Pei-Ju & Hwang, Chorng-Jer, 2008. "Factors affecting Taiwanese women's choice of cesarean section," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 201-209, January.
    11. d'Este, Rocco & Einiö, Elias, 2021. "Beyond Black and White: The Impact of Asian Peers on Scholastic Achievement," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Do, Quy-Toan & Phung, Tung Duc, 2006. "Superstition, family planning, and human development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4001, The World Bank.
    13. d'Este, Rocco & Einiö, Elias, 2018. "Asian Segregation and Scholastic Achievement: Evidence from Primary Schools in New York City," IZA Discussion Papers 11682, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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