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Will policy to constrain GP referrals damage health? Evidence using practice level NHS emergency admissions administrative data

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  • McCormick, Barry
  • Nicodemo, Catia
  • Redding, Stuart

Abstract

Attempts to control hospital expenditure by managing down General Practitioner (GP) referrals are reoccurring features of UK health policy. However, despite the best efforts of GPs to benchmark referral criteria, patient health may be damaged and other costs created by constraining referrals to targets. This paper adopts an indirect method to indicate whether rationing practice referrals may damage population health by distorting the use of health resources away from patients’ interests. We utilise a comprehensive database at practice level that allows us to explore the relationship between referrals and emergency admissions, using a panel fixed effects model of admissions that allows for the endogeneity of referrals. We find that practice referrals are positively and partially correlated with emergency admissions, which is consistent with time-varying practice-level sickness shocks driving the relationship between referrals and emergency care, rather than shocks to the practice willingness to refer, or to system reforms. In this environment, government policy to constrain referrals may make the elective care less responsive to practice-level variations in illness, and thereby lower health.

Suggested Citation

  • McCormick, Barry & Nicodemo, Catia & Redding, Stuart, 2021. "Will policy to constrain GP referrals damage health? Evidence using practice level NHS emergency admissions administrative data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:270:y:2021:i:c:s0277953620308856
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wright, David Bradley & Ricketts III, Thomas C., 2010. "The road to efficiency? Re-examining the impact of the primary care physician workforce on health care utilization rates," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2006-2010, June.
    2. Thomas E Cowling & Elizabeth V Cecil & Michael A Soljak & John Tayu Lee & Christopher Millett & Azeem Majeed & Robert M Wachter & Matthew J Harris, 2013. "Access to Primary Care and Visits to Emergency Departments in England: A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-6, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. McDonnell, Thérèse & Nicholson, Emma & Bury, Gerard & Collins, Claire & Conlon, Ciara & De Brún, Aoife & Doherty, Edel & McAuliffe, Eilish, 2023. "The role of contextual factors in decision-making by General Practitioners on paediatric referral to the Emergency Department in Ireland: A Discrete Choice Experiment," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emergency hospital admissions; Referrals; General practice; England; NHS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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