Non-compliance in transit-based evacuation pick-up point assignments

In the literature on evacuation planning, a basic assumption is that all evacuees are fully compliant with respect to the officially planned evacuee-to-facility assignments. However, this assumption is challenged in reality. Hence, we propose two-stage stochastic evacuation pick-up point assignment models, which explicitly incorporate uncertain non-compliance behavior of evacuees. In the first stage, evacuees of each demand point are assigned to a specific transit pick-up point. In the second stage, imbalances of evacuees at each pick-up point are revealed based on the first-stage assignments and the realized non-compliance relevant scenarios. With numerical studies and a case study, we investigate the importance of including correlated stochastic non-compliance behavior in the models, illustrate that our models are effective to produce better pick-up point assignment plans and obtain managerial insights on evacuation planning and model applications.