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A simulation approach for estimating value at risk in transportation infrastructure investment decisions

Author

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  • Mishra, Sabyasachee
  • Khasnabis, Snehamay
  • Dhingra, Sunder Lall

Abstract

Traditional economic analysis techniques used in the assessment of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are based upon the assumption that future cash flows are fully deterministic in nature and are not designed to account for risks involved in the assessment of future returns. In reality, many of these infrastructure projects are associated with significant risks stemming from the lack of knowledge about future cost and benefit streams. The fundamental premise of the PPP concept is to efficiently allocate risks between the public and the private partner. The return based on deterministic analysis may not depict a true picture of future economic outcomes of a PPP project for the multiple agencies involved. This deficiency underscores the importance of risk-based economic analysis for such projects. In this paper, the authors present the concept of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of effectiveness (MOE) to assess the risk share for the public and private entity in a PPP project. Bootstrap simulation is used to generate the risk profile savings in vehicle operating cost, and in travel time resulting from demand-responsive traffic. The VaR for Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is determined for public and private entity. The methodology is applied to a case study involving such a joint venture in India, the Mumbai Pune Expressway/National Highway 4 (MPEW/NH4), and fiscal implications from the perspective of the public and the private entities are examined. A comparison between deterministic and risk based economic analysis for MPEW/NH4 is presented. Risk analysis provides insightful results on the economic and financial implications from each participant's viewpoint.

Suggested Citation

  • Mishra, Sabyasachee & Khasnabis, Snehamay & Dhingra, Sunder Lall, 2013. "A simulation approach for estimating value at risk in transportation infrastructure investment decisions," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 128-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:38:y:2013:i:1:p:128-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2012.05.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alain Bonnafous & Pablo Jensen, 2005. "Ranking Transport Projects by their Socioeconomic Value or Financial Interest rate of return?," Post-Print halshs-00079721, HAL.
    2. Bonnafous, Alain & Jensen, Pablo, 2005. "Ranking transport projects by their socioeconomic value or financial internal rate of return?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-136, March.
    3. John Miller & Roger Evje, 1999. "The practical application of delivery methods to project portfolios," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 669-677.
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