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Forecasting daily global solar irradiance generation using machine learning

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  • Sharma, Amandeep
  • Kakkar, Ajay

Abstract

Rechargeable wireless sensor networks mitigate the life span and cost constraints propound in conventional battery operated networks. Reliable knowledge of solar radiation is essential for informed design, deployment planning and optimal management of self-powered nodes. The problem of solar irradiance forecasting can be well addressed by machine learning methodologies over historical data set. In proposed work, forecasts have been done using FoBa, leapForward, spikeslab, Cubist and bagEarthGCV models. To validate the effectiveness of these methodologies, a series of experimental evaluations have been presented in terms of forecast accuracy, correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE). The r interface has been used as simulation platform for these evaluations. The dataset from national renewable energy laboratory (NREL) has been used for experiments. The experimental results exhibits that from few hours to two days ahead solar irradiance prediction is precisely estimated by machine learning based models irrespective of seasonal variation in weather conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharma, Amandeep & Kakkar, Ajay, 2018. "Forecasting daily global solar irradiance generation using machine learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2254-2269.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:82:y:2018:i:p3:p:2254-2269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.08.066
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    2. Yuqing Yang & Stephen Bremner & Chris Menictas & Merlinde Kay, 2019. "A Mixed Receding Horizon Control Strategy for Battery Energy Storage System Scheduling in a Hybrid PV and Wind Power Plant with Different Forecast Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-25, June.
    3. Pedregal, Diego J. & Trapero, Juan R., 2021. "Adjusted combination of moving averages: A forecasting system for medium-term solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    4. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    5. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. N. Yogambal Jayalakshmi & R. Shankar & Umashankar Subramaniam & I. Baranilingesan & Alagar Karthick & Balasubramaniam Stalin & Robbi Rahim & Aritra Ghosh, 2021. "Novel Multi-Time Scale Deep Learning Algorithm for Solar Irradiance Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, April.
    7. Correa-Jullian, Camila & López Droguett, Enrique & Cardemil, José Miguel, 2020. "Operation scheduling in a solar thermal system: A reinforcement learning-based framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    8. Wassila Tercha & Sid Ahmed Tadjer & Fathia Chekired & Laurent Canale, 2024. "Machine Learning-Based Forecasting of Temperature and Solar Irradiance for Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong & Huang, Chao, 2021. "Methodological framework for short-and medium-term energy, solar and wind power forecasting with stochastic-based machine learning approach to monetary and energy policy applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Miriam Benedetti & Francesca Bonfà & Vito Introna & Annalisa Santolamazza & Stefano Ubertini, 2019. "Real Time Energy Performance Control for Industrial Compressed Air Systems: Methodology and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-28, October.
    11. Haider, Syed Altan & Sajid, Muhammad & Sajid, Hassan & Uddin, Emad & Ayaz, Yasar, 2022. "Deep learning and statistical methods for short- and long-term solar irradiance forecasting for Islamabad," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 51-60.
    12. Azizi, Narjes & Yaghoubirad, Maryam & Farajollahi, Meisam & Ahmadi, Abolfzl, 2023. "Deep learning based long-term global solar irradiance and temperature forecasting using time series with multi-step multivariate output," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 135-147.

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