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Opportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe – Scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Boie, Inga
  • Kost, Christoph
  • Bohn, Sven
  • Agsten, Michael
  • Bretschneider, Peter
  • Snigovyi, Oleksandr
  • Pudlik, Martin
  • Ragwitz, Mario
  • Schlegl, Thomas
  • Westermann, Dirk

Abstract

Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares – close to 100% – are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Boie, Inga & Kost, Christoph & Bohn, Sven & Agsten, Michael & Bretschneider, Peter & Snigovyi, Oleksandr & Pudlik, Martin & Ragwitz, Mario & Schlegl, Thomas & Westermann, Dirk, 2016. "Opportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe – Scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 130-144.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:87:y:2016:i:p1:p:130-144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.008
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    13. ElSayed, Mai & Aghahosseini, Arman & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "High cost of slow energy transitions for emerging countries: On the case of Egypt's pathway options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 107-126.
    14. Pablo E. Carvajal & Asami Miketa & Nadeem Goussous & Pauline Fulcheri, 2022. "Best Practice in Government Use and Development of Long-Term Energy Transition Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    15. Jeslin Drusila Nesamalar, J. & Venkatesh, P. & Charles Raja, S., 2017. "The drive of renewable energy in Tamilnadu: Status, barriers and future prospect," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 115-124.
    16. Löffler, Konstantin & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "Modeling the low-carbon transition of the European energy system - A quantitative assessment of the stranded assets problem," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26, pages 1-15.
    17. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2018. "A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1200-1219.
    18. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    19. Srikkanth Ramachandran & Kais Siala & Cristina de La Rúa & Tobias Massier & Arif Ahmed & Thomas Hamacher, 2021. "Life Cycle Climate Change Impact of a Cost-Optimal HVDC Connection to Import Solar Energy from Australia to Singapore," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, November.

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