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Addressing failure rate uncertainties of marine energy converters

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  • Thies, Philipp R.
  • Smith, George H.
  • Johanning, Lars

Abstract

The interest in marine renewable energy is strong, but has not led to significant commercial-scale investment and deployment, yet. To attract investors and promote the development of a marine renewable industry a clear concept of project risk is paramount, in particular issues relating to device reliability are critical. In the public domain, reliability information is often scarce or inappropriate at this early stage of development, as little operational experience has been gained. Thus, reliability estimates are fraught with large uncertainties. This paper explores sources and magnitudes of failure rate uncertainty and demonstrates the effect on reliability estimates for a notional marine energy converter. If generic failure rate data forms the basis of a reliability assessment, reliability estimates are not robust and may significantly over- or underestimate system reliability. The Bayesian statistical framework provides a method to overcome this issue. Generic data can be updated with more specific information that could not be statistically incorporated otherwise. It is proposed that adopting such an approach at an early stage in an iterative process will lead to an improved rate of certainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Thies, Philipp R. & Smith, George H. & Johanning, Lars, 2012. "Addressing failure rate uncertainties of marine energy converters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 359-367.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:44:y:2012:i:c:p:359-367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mackay, Edward B.L. & Bahaj, AbuBakr S. & Challenor, Peter G., 2010. "Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 1: Historic data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1792-1808.
    2. Mackay, Edward B.L. & Bahaj, AbuBakr S. & Challenor, Peter G., 2010. "Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1809-1819.
    3. Mueller, Markus & Wallace, Robin, 2008. "Enabling science and technology for marine renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4376-4382, December.
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    1. Ewing, Fraser J. & Thies, Philipp R. & Shek, Jonathan & Ferreira, Claudio Bittencourt, 2020. "Probabilistic failure rate model of a tidal turbine pitch system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 987-997.
    2. Dimitri V. Val & Leon Chernin & Daniil Yurchenko, 2021. "Updatable Probabilistic Evaluation of Failure Rates of Mechanical Components in Power Take-Off Systems of Tidal Stream Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Rosa-Santos, Paulo & Taveira-Pinto, Francisco & Rodríguez, Claudio A. & Ramos, Victor & López, Mario, 2019. "The CECO wave energy converter: Recent developments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 368-384.
    4. Simon Ambühl & Laurent Marquis & Jens Peter Kofoed & John Dalsgaard Sørensen, 2015. "Operation and maintenance strategies for wave energy converters," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(5), pages 417-441, October.

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