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Predicting total solar irradiation values using artificial neural networks

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  • Mubiru, J.

Abstract

This study explores the possibility of developing an artificial neural networks model that could be used to predict monthly average daily total solar irradiation on a horizontal surface for locations in Uganda based on geographical and meteorological data: latitude, longitude, altitude, sunshine duration, relative humidity and maximum temperature. Results have shown good agreement between the predicted and measured values of total solar irradiation. A correlation coefficient of 0.997 was obtained with mean bias error of 0.018MJ/m2 and root mean square error of 0.131MJ/m2. Overall, the artificial neural networks model predicted with an accuracy of 0.1% of the mean absolute percentage error.

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  • Mubiru, J., 2008. "Predicting total solar irradiation values using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 2329-2332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:33:y:2008:i:10:p:2329-2332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2008.01.009
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    4. Jawed Mustafa & Shahid Husain & Saeed Alqaed & Uzair Ali Khan & Basharat Jamil, 2022. "Performance of Two Variable Machine Learning Models to Forecast Monthly Mean Diffuse Solar Radiation across India under Various Climate Zones," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-32, October.
    5. Marzouq, Manal & El Fadili, Hakim & Zenkouar, Khalid & Lakhliai, Zakia & Amouzg, Mohammed, 2020. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting via a novel evolutionary multi-model framework and performance assessment for sites with no solar irradiance data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 214-231.
    6. Linares-Rodríguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vázquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquín, 2011. "Generation of synthetic daily global solar radiation data based on ERA-Interim reanalysis and artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5356-5365.
    7. Işık, Erdem & Inallı, Mustafa, 2018. "Artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems approaches to forecast the meteorological data for HVAC: The case of cities for Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 7-16.
    8. Faisal Nawab & Ag Sufiyan Abd Hamid & Ali Alwaeli & Muhammad Arif & Mohd Faizal Fauzan & Adnan Ibrahim, 2022. "Evaluation of Artificial Neural Networks with Satellite Data Inputs for Daily, Monthly, and Yearly Solar Irradiation Prediction for Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2011. "Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 348-359.

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