IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v81y2005i2p209-221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Turkey's net energy consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Sözen, Adnan
  • Arcaklioglu, Erol
  • Özkaymak, Mehmet

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to develop the equations for forecasting net energy consumption (NEC) using an artificial neural-network (ANN) technique in order to determine the future level of energy consumption in Turkey. In this study, two different models were used in order to train the neural network. In one of them, population, gross generation, installed capacity and years are used in the input layer of the network (Model 1). Other energy sources are used in input layer of network (Model 2). The net energy consumption is in the output layer for two models. Data from 1975 to 2003 are used for the training. Three years (1981, 1994 and 2003) are used only as test data to confirm this method. The statistical coefficients of multiple determinations (R2-value) for training data are equal to 0.99944 and 0.99913 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. Similarly, R2 values for testing data are equal to 0.997386 and 0.999558 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. According to the results, the net energy consumption using the ANN technique has been predicted with acceptable accuracy. Apart from reducing the whole time required, with the ANN approach, it is possible to find solutions that make energy applications more viable and thus more attractive to potential users. It is also expected that this study will be helpful in developing highly applicable energy policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özkaymak, Mehmet, 2005. "Turkey's net energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 209-221, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:81:y:2005:i:2:p:209-221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(04)00100-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalogirou, Soteris A., 2000. "Applications of artificial neural-networks for energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(1-2), pages 17-35, September.
    2. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Kanit, E. Galip, 2004. "Use of artificial neural networks for mapping of solar potential in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 273-286, March.
    3. Dincer, Ibrahim & Dost, Sadik, 1996. "Energy intensities for Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 283-298.
    4. Mohandes, M. & Rehman, S. & Halawani, T.O., 1998. "Estimation of global solar radiation using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 179-184.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jabar H. Yousif & Hussein A. Kazem & John Boland, 2017. "Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Linares-Rodríguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vázquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquín, 2011. "Generation of synthetic daily global solar radiation data based on ERA-Interim reanalysis and artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5356-5365.
    3. Sözen, Adnan & Ali Akçayol, M., 2004. "Modelling (using artificial neural-networks) the performance parameters of a solar-driven ejector-absorption cycle," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 309-325, November.
    4. Senkal, Ozan & Kuleli, Tuncay, 2009. "Estimation of solar radiation over Turkey using artificial neural network and satellite data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(7-8), pages 1222-1228, July.
    5. Sözen, Adnan & Arcakliog[caron]lu, Erol, 2005. "Effect of relative humidity on solar potential," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 345-367, December.
    6. Fadare, D.A., 2010. "The application of artificial neural networks to mapping of wind speed profile for energy application in Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 934-942, March.
    7. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol, 2005. "Solar potential in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-45, January.
    8. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklıoğlu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Çağlar, Naci, 2005. "Forecasting based on neural network approach of solar potential in Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1075-1090.
    9. Mubiru, J., 2008. "Predicting total solar irradiation values using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 2329-2332.
    10. Wan, Kevin K.W. & Tang, H.L. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2008. "An analysis of thermal and solar zone radiation models using an Angstrom–Prescott equation and artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1115-1127.
    11. Elminir, Hamdy K. & Azzam, Yosry A. & Younes, Farag I., 2007. "Prediction of hourly and daily diffuse fraction using neural network, as compared to linear regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1513-1523.
    12. Hejase, Hassan A.N. & Al-Shamisi, Maitha H. & Assi, Ali H., 2014. "Modeling of global horizontal irradiance in the United Arab Emirates with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 542-552.
    13. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2013. "A comparative study of total, direct and diffuse solar irradiance by using different models on horizontal and inclined surfaces for Cairo, Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 853-863.
    14. Jiang, Yingni, 2008. "Prediction of monthly mean daily diffuse solar radiation using artificial neural networks and comparison with other empirical models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3833-3837, October.
    15. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Kanit, E. Galip, 2005. "Solar-energy potential in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 367-381, April.
    16. Arcaklioglu, Erol & Çelikten, Ismet, 2005. "A diesel engine's performance and exhaust emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 11-22, January.
    17. Kisi, Ozgur, 2014. "Modeling solar radiation of Mediterranean region in Turkey by using fuzzy genetic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 429-436.
    18. Sözen, Adnan, 2009. "Future projection of the energy dependency of Turkey using artificial neural network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4827-4833, November.
    19. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2016. "Evaluation of transposition models of solar irradiance over Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 105-119.
    20. Shubham Gupta & Amit Kumar Singh & Sachin Mishra & Pradeep Vishnuram & Nagaraju Dharavat & Narayanamoorthi Rajamanickam & Ch. Naga Sai Kalyan & Kareem M. AboRas & Naveen Kumar Sharma & Mohit Bajaj, 2023. "Estimation of Solar Radiation with Consideration of Terrestrial Losses at a Selected Location—A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-29, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:81:y:2005:i:2:p:209-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.