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Turkey's net energy consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Sözen, Adnan
  • Arcaklioglu, Erol
  • Özkaymak, Mehmet

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to develop the equations for forecasting net energy consumption (NEC) using an artificial neural-network (ANN) technique in order to determine the future level of energy consumption in Turkey. In this study, two different models were used in order to train the neural network. In one of them, population, gross generation, installed capacity and years are used in the input layer of the network (Model 1). Other energy sources are used in input layer of network (Model 2). The net energy consumption is in the output layer for two models. Data from 1975 to 2003 are used for the training. Three years (1981, 1994 and 2003) are used only as test data to confirm this method. The statistical coefficients of multiple determinations (R2-value) for training data are equal to 0.99944 and 0.99913 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. Similarly, R2 values for testing data are equal to 0.997386 and 0.999558 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. According to the results, the net energy consumption using the ANN technique has been predicted with acceptable accuracy. Apart from reducing the whole time required, with the ANN approach, it is possible to find solutions that make energy applications more viable and thus more attractive to potential users. It is also expected that this study will be helpful in developing highly applicable energy policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özkaymak, Mehmet, 2005. "Turkey's net energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 209-221, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:81:y:2005:i:2:p:209-221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hamzacebi, Coskun, 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 2009-2016, March.
    2. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
    3. Cinar, Didem & Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Daim, Tugrul, 2010. "Development of future energy scenarios with intelligent algorithms: Case of hydro in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1724-1729.
    4. ToksarI, M. Duran, 2009. "Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach: Case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1181-1187, March.
    5. repec:eee:energy:v:126:y:2017:i:c:p:144-164 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Olanrewaju, O.A & Jimoh, A.A, 2014. "Review of energy models to the development of an efficient industrial energy model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 661-671.
    7. Aydin, Gokhan, 2014. "Modeling of energy consumption based on economic and demographic factors: The case of Turkey with projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 382-389.
    8. Hong, Taehoon & Koo, Choongwan & Jeong, Kwangbok, 2012. "A decision support model for reducing electric energy consumption in elementary school facilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 253-266.
    9. Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
    10. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2005. "Energy market reforms in Turkey: An economic analysis," MPRA Paper 26929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tutun, Salih & Chou, Chun-An & Canıyılmaz, Erdal, 2015. "A new forecasting framework for volatile behavior in net electricity consumption: A case study in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2406-2422.
    12. Uzlu, Ergun & Kankal, Murat & Akpınar, Adem & Dede, Tayfun, 2014. "Estimates of energy consumption in Turkey using neural networks with the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 295-303.
    13. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    14. Ekonomou, L., 2010. "Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 512-517.
    15. Kurt, Hüseyin & Kayfeci, Muhammet, 2009. "Prediction of thermal conductivity of ethylene glycol-water solutions by using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2244-2248, October.
    16. Kankal, Murat & AkpInar, Adem & Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan & Özsahin, Talat Sükrü, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1927-1939, May.
    17. Uzlu, Ergun & Akpınar, Adem & Özturk, Hasan Tahsin & Nacar, Sinan & Kankal, Murat, 2014. "Estimates of hydroelectric generation using neural networks with the artificial bee colony algorithm for Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 638-647.
    18. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:406-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Yeo, In-Ae & Yee, Jurng-Jae, 2014. "A proposal for a site location planning model of environmentally friendly urban energy supply plants using an environment and energy geographical information system (E-GIS) database (DB) and an artifi," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 99-117.
    20. repec:eee:rensus:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:297-325 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:eee:energy:v:127:y:2017:i:c:p:381-396 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Attia, Shady & Evrard, Arnaud & Gratia, Elisabeth, 2012. "Development of benchmark models for the Egyptian residential buildings sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 270-284.

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