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Evaluating energy management and economic performance of a retrofitted zero-energy house under local climate-based seasonal patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zongmao
  • Su, Yuan
  • Lu, Yunqin
  • Wang, Yuhan
  • Li, Haifeng
  • Wang, Chanjuan
  • Gao, Weijun

Abstract

Achieving carbon neutrality requires large-scale retrofitting of existing residential buildings to zero-energy house standards. However, conventional season classifications often fail to capture the real impact of climate variability on energy use patterns, limiting the effectiveness of retrofit strategies. This study introduces a climate-responsive seasonal framework to assess the energy and economic sustainability of a fully electrified, grid-connected detached house in Saga City, Japan. Using meteorological data (2003–2024) and detailed energy use records (2022–2023), Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess and appliance-level load analysis were applied to reveal seasonal load dynamics and photovoltaic performance. Findings show that local climate-based season definitions significantly improved the interpretation of seasonal load patterns, with the within-season variability of air-conditioning demand decreasing by more than 20 % compared with the conventional definition, effectively reducing misclassification during transitional months. A mismatch between photovoltaic generation and household load led to a low self-consumption ratio (12–22 %). Although feed-in revenues were stable, the system investment (4.92 million JPY) could not be recovered within the contractual period. The winter demand–photovoltaic mismatch calls for season-aligned storage planning, not just added capacity. The study highlights the need for season-sensitive analysis and integrated storge planning to guide sustainable residential retrofits.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zongmao & Su, Yuan & Lu, Yunqin & Wang, Yuhan & Li, Haifeng & Wang, Chanjuan & Gao, Weijun, 2026. "Evaluating energy management and economic performance of a retrofitted zero-energy house under local climate-based seasonal patterns," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:257:y:2026:i:c:s0960148125024760
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.124812
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