Precise prediction models for floating and land-based Photovoltaics: Comparative analysis for advancing sustainable energy and water management solutions

A novel simulation model designed for floating photovoltaic systems was developed and validated, demonstrating 98.2 % accuracy against empirical Spanish data. A detailed comparison of five sites with diverse conditions indicates floating photovoltaic systems outperform land-based systems, exhibiting up to 4.81 % higher performance ratios, due to enhanced cooling effects and effective irradiation. Notably, a 1-MW floating photovoltaic power plant achieves annual water conservation of 25,940 to 47,687 cubic meters through reduced evaporative losses. An improvement in greenhouse gas emission reduction, starting from 3.03 % to 4.04 %, has been achieved. The addressed reduction is equivalent to the carbon uptake of 52–112 square kilometers of forest per 1-MW of the floating photovoltaic power plant, outperforming land-based system performance and providing added eco-environmental benefits. Disregarding these benefits, the financial metrics of floating photovoltaic systems exhibit payback periods between 4.1 and 7.0 years, a return on investment of 340 %–668 %, and net present values of 1.50–3.38 million dollars per 1-MW power plant. Nevertheless, incorporating the eco-environmental benefits significantly alters its financial profile, resulting in a shorter payback period (2.8–4.6 years), a higher return on investment (640–1126 %), and a substantially increased net present value (up to 68.6 %), surpassing land-based photovoltaics in all aspects.