IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v199y2022icp560-586.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel hybrid model for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power prediction based on conditional time series generative adversarial networks

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Fengyun
  • Zheng, Haofeng
  • Li, Xingmei

Abstract

The accuracy of photovoltaic power forecasting is crucial to the revenue of new energy generation projects in electricity market trading. However, due to the highly stochastic volatility and intermittent characteristics of photovoltaic power, it is difficult to construct high-performance photovoltaic power forecasting models. In this study, a multi-step short-term hybrid prediction model of photovoltaic power is proposed, which combines an improved sparrow search algorithm, Fuzzy c-means algorithm (FCM), improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICCEMDAN), and conditional time series generative adversarial networks (CTGAN). First, a new data clustering method based on FCM and data envelope theory is proposed to divide the dataset based on similar power patterns, and the parameters are optimized by an improved sparrow search algorithm. Second, the grey relational analysis and feature creation are combined to determine the optimal similar day for the forecasting day. Furthermore, the original photovoltaic power time series is decomposed using ICCEMDAN, and the components are reconstructed by sample entropy to reduce the computational cost of forecasting models. Finally, Wasserstein distance, gradient penalty, and Metropolis-Hastings are used to ensure CTGAN training stability. According to the experimental results, it can be concluded that the data envelope clustering method divides datasets more reasonably than meteorological factors. The optimization for the sparrow search algorithm increases its global and local optimization ability to further enhance the performance of FCM. Using CTGAN to generate realistic data that approximates real data distributions can train predictive models with better performance, which increases their adaptability to PV power fluctuations. The proposed hybrid model is validated based on different seasons, different weather conditions, and datasets from different locations, and the results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed 38-step predictive model in accuracy, application, and generalization capabilities over other models involved in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Fengyun & Zheng, Haofeng & Li, Xingmei, 2022. "A novel hybrid model for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power prediction based on conditional time series generative adversarial networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 560-586.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:199:y:2022:i:c:p:560-586
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.08.134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014812201312X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2022.08.134?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oliva, Diego & Abd El Aziz, Mohamed & Ella Hassanien, Aboul, 2017. "Parameter estimation of photovoltaic cells using an improved chaotic whale optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 141-154.
    2. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    3. Kushwaha, Vishal & Pindoriya, Naran M., 2019. "A SARIMA-RVFL hybrid model assisted by wavelet decomposition for very short-term solar PV power generation forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 124-139.
    4. Goop, Joel & Nyholm, Emil & Odenberger, Mikael & Johnsson, Filip, 2021. "Impact of electricity market feedback on investments in solar photovoltaic and battery systems in Swedish single-family dwellings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1078-1091.
    5. Hui Wang & Jianbo Sun & Weijun Wang, 2018. "Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on EEMD and a Variable-Weight Combination Forecasting Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-11, July.
    6. Saber, Esmail M. & Lee, Siew Eang & Manthapuri, Sumanth & Yi, Wang & Deb, Chirag, 2014. "PV (photovoltaics) performance evaluation and simulation-based energy yield prediction for tropical buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 588-595.
    7. Maghami, Mohammad Reza & Hizam, Hashim & Gomes, Chandima & Radzi, Mohd Amran & Rezadad, Mohammad Ismael & Hajighorbani, Shahrooz, 2016. "Power loss due to soiling on solar panel: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1307-1316.
    8. Yin, Wansi & Han, Yutong & Zhou, Hai & Ma, Ming & Li, Li & Zhu, Honglu, 2020. "A novel non-iterative correction method for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 23-32.
    9. Yadav, Amit Kumar & Sharma, Vikrant & Malik, Hasmat & Chandel, S.S., 2018. "Daily array yield prediction of grid-interactive photovoltaic plant using relief attribute evaluator based Radial Basis Function Neural Network," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2115-2127.
    10. Liu, Da & Sun, Kun, 2019. "Random forest solar power forecast based on classification optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    11. Sharadga, Hussein & Hajimirza, Shima & Balog, Robert S., 2020. "Time series forecasting of solar power generation for large-scale photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 797-807.
    12. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yan-hui & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yong-qian & Li, Li & Wang, Zheng, 2019. "Mid-to-long term wind and photovoltaic power generation prediction based on copula function and long short term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 181-191.
    13. Gangqiang Li & Huaizhi Wang & Shengli Zhang & Jiantao Xin & Huichuan Liu, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    14. Koo, Choongwan & Hong, Taehoon & Jeong, Kwangbok & Ban, Cheolwoo & Oh, Jeongyoon, 2017. "Development of the smart photovoltaic system blind and its impact on net-zero energy solar buildings using technical-economic-political analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 382-396.
    15. Chen, Jinxin & Pan, Guobing & Ouyang, Jing & Ma, Jin & Fu, Lei & Zhang, Libin, 2020. "Study on impacts of dust accumulation and rainfall on PV power reduction in East China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    16. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based LSTM-Convolutional Network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Song, Yazhi & Liu, Tiansen & Ye, Bin & Li, Yin, 2020. "Linking carbon market and electricity market for promoting the grid parity of photovoltaic electricity in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    18. Moreira, M.O. & Balestrassi, P.P. & Paiva, A.P. & Ribeiro, P.F. & Bonatto, B.D., 2021. "Design of experiments using artificial neural network ensemble for photovoltaic generation forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Koster, Daniel & Minette, Frank & Braun, Christian & O'Nagy, Oliver, 2019. "Short-term and regionalized photovoltaic power forecasting, enhanced by reference systems, on the example of Luxembourg," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 455-470.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gu, Xufei & Ying, Zhi & Zheng, Xiaoyuan & Dou, Binlin & Cui, Guomin, 2023. "Photovoltaic-based energy system coupled with energy storage for all-day stable PEM electrolytic hydrogen production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 53-62.
    2. Liu, Jingxuan & Zang, Haixiang & Zhang, Fengchun & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2023. "A hybrid meteorological data simulation framework based on time-series generative adversarial network for global daily solar radiation estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    3. Wen, Haoran & Du, Yang & Chen, Xiaoyang & Lim, Eng Gee & Wen, Huiqing & Yan, Ke, 2023. "A regional solar forecasting approach using generative adversarial networks with solar irradiance maps," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Wang, Jianing & Zhu, Hongqiu & Zhang, Yingjie & Cheng, Fei & Zhou, Can, 2023. "A novel prediction model for wind power based on improved long short-term memory neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Qing & Zhang, Xinyan & Ma, Tianjiao & Jiao, Chunlei & Wang, Heng & Hu, Wei, 2021. "A multi-step ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on similar day, enhanced colliding bodies optimization, variational mode decomposition, and deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    2. Korkmaz, Deniz, 2021. "SolarNet: A hybrid reliable model based on convolutional neural network and variational mode decomposition for hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    3. Gu, Bo & Shen, Huiqiang & Lei, Xiaohui & Hu, Hao & Liu, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting and uncertainty analysis of day-ahead photovoltaic power using a novel forecasting method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    4. Hu, Zehuan & Gao, Yuan & Ji, Siyu & Mae, Masayuki & Imaizumi, Taiji, 2024. "Improved multistep ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on LSTM and self-attention with weather forecast data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    5. Xu, Fang Yuan & Tang, Rui Xin & Xu, Si Bin & Fan, Yi Liang & Zhou, Ya & Zhang, Hao Tian, 2021. "Neural network-based photovoltaic generation capacity prediction system with benefit-oriented modification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    6. Yang, Hufang & Jiang, Ping & Wang, Ying & Li, Hongmin, 2022. "A fuzzy intelligent forecasting system based on combined fuzzification strategy and improved optimization algorithm for renewable energy power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    7. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    8. Rafati, Amir & Joorabian, Mahmood & Mashhour, Elaheh & Shaker, Hamid Reza, 2021. "High dimensional very short-term solar power forecasting based on a data-driven heuristic method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    9. Zhen, Hao & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Shi, Yucheng & Ji, Zhengsen & Xu, Xiaomin, 2021. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based on GA improved Bi-LSTM in microgrid without meteorological information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Li, Chengdong & Zhou, Changgeng & Peng, Wei & Lv, Yisheng & Luo, Xin, 2020. "Accurate prediction of short-term photovoltaic power generation via a novel double-input-rule-modules stacked deep fuzzy method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Ma, Huixin & Zhang, Chu & Peng, Tian & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Li, Yiman, 2022. "An integrated framework of gated recurrent unit based on improved sine cosine algorithm for photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    12. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    13. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    14. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    15. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.
    16. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Liu, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Liu, Wuming, 2022. "Time series forecasting for hourly photovoltaic power using conditional generative adversarial network and Bi-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    17. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    18. Martina Radicioni & Valentina Lucaferri & Francesco De Lia & Antonino Laudani & Roberto Lo Presti & Gabriele Maria Lozito & Francesco Riganti Fulginei & Riccardo Schioppo & Mario Tucci, 2021. "Power Forecasting of a Photovoltaic Plant Located in ENEA Casaccia Research Center," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    19. Ladislav Zjavka, 2021. "Photovoltaic Energy All-Day and Intra-Day Forecasting Using Node by Node Developed Polynomial Networks Forming PDE Models Based on the L-Transformation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    20. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:199:y:2022:i:c:p:560-586. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.