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Assessment of the wind power dynamics in the North Sea under climate change conditions

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  • Rusu, Eugen

Abstract

The objective of the present work is to analyse the expected dynamics of the wind power in the North Sea until the end of the twenty-first century. From this perspective, the proposed study is focused on the assessment of the average and extreme conditions, considering two future time windows. These are near future, represented by the 40-year time interval 2021–2060, and distant future, represented by the time interval 2061–2100. The wind data provided by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) is processed and analysed in this work considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The first, denoted as the realistic scenario, assumes an increase of the greenhouse gas emissions until 2040 and a stagnation and decline afterwards, while the second, denoted as the pessimistic scenario, assumes that this increase will continue along the entire 21st century and afterword. Furthermore, an analysis of the recent past wind data for the 40-year period 1980–2019 is also carried out. In this way a more comprehensive image of the wind power dynamics for both the near and distant future in the North Sea is provided. The results indicate that enhancements are expected in the North Sea, both in terms of mean wind power density, but also especially as regards the maximum wind speed. Finally, comparisons with the expected dynamics of some other similar marine environments, as the Baltic, Mediterranean and Black seas are also performed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rusu, Eugen, 2022. "Assessment of the wind power dynamics in the North Sea under climate change conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 466-475.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:195:y:2022:i:c:p:466-475
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.06.048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rusu, Liliana & Onea, Florin, 2015. "Assessment of the performances of various wave energy converters along the European continental coasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 889-904.
    2. Rusu, Eugen, 2019. "A 30-year projection of the future wind energy resources in the coastal environment of the Black Sea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-234.
    3. Onea, Florin & Rusu, Eugen, 2016. "The expected efficiency and coastal impact of a hybrid energy farm operating in the Portuguese nearshore," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 411-423.
    4. Nguyen, Kim Hanh & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2019. "Renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions, and development stages: Some evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1049-1057.
    5. Florin Onea & Sorin Ciortan & Eugen Rusu, 2017. "Assessment of the potential for developing combined wind-wave projects in the European nearshore," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(5-6), pages 580-597, September.
    6. Florin Onea & Liliana Rusu, 2018. "Evaluation of Some State-Of-The-Art Wind Technologies in the Nearshore of the Black Sea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Andrés Ruiz & Florin Onea & Eugen Rusu, 2020. "Study Concerning the Expected Dynamics of the Wind Energy Resources in the Iberian Nearshore," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-25, September.
    8. Rusu, Eugen, 2020. "An evaluation of the wind energy dynamics in the Baltic Sea, past and future projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 350-362.
    9. Kiunke, Theresa & Gemignani, Natalia & Malheiro, Pedro & Brudermann, Thomas, 2022. "Key factors influencing onshore wind energy development: A case study from the German North Sea region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    10. Florin Onea & Eugen Rusu, 2018. "Sustainability of the Reanalysis Databases in Predicting the Wind and Wave Power along the European Coasts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, January.
    11. Eugen Rusu & Florin Onea, 2017. "Joint Evaluation of the Wave and Offshore Wind Energy Resources in the Developing Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Daniel Ganea & Elena Mereuta & Liliana Rusu, 2018. "Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    13. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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